36% — Pro Football: NFC North Champion
Leader: NFC North Champion: Detroit Lions at 36% · Polymarket 36% · 4 contracts · $134 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 09:28:18 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 33% probability indicates that betting markets estimate roughly one-in-three odds that the team currently leading contract prices will win the NFC North division championship. The leading contract is trading higher than its nearest competitor (30%), reflecting market perception of relative strength among the four division teams. Movement in this probability will primarily depend on team performance during the regular season, injury developments, and playoff qualification dynamics. The division championship will be determined by final standings at the end of the 2026 NFL regular season, with the winner confirmed in early 2027 when playoff seeding is finalized.

Key factors:
- The top-priced contract (Detroit at 33%) trades at a significant premium to teams priced at 8-9 cents, suggesting differentiation in perceived championship likelihood rather than evenly-matched competition.
- Trading volume concentrated in Detroit and Chicago contracts ($5,609 and $5,435 in 24h volume respectively) indicates these two teams command substantially more market attention than Minnesota or Washington.
- The contract distribution (33%, 30%, 9%, 8%, 3%) reflects division hierarchy, with the bottom three teams combined at 20%, suggesting the market assigns most probability mass to two primary contenders.
- Contract pricing at 3-9 cents rather than higher levels suggests meaningful uncertainty remains—no single outcome is heavily favored despite the leader's relative advantage.
- Regular season performance from September 2026 forward will be the primary driver of probability shifts, with win-loss records determining playoff positioning and division champion qualification.

Contracts:
- Pro Football: NFC North Champion: Detroit Lions — 36¢ Polymarket $30 (weight 22%)
- Pro Football: NFC North Champion: Chicago Bears — 26¢ Polymarket $30 (weight 22%)
- Pro Football: NFC North Champion: Green Bay Packers — 26¢ Polymarket $30 (weight 22%)
- Pro Football: NFC North Champion: Minnesota Vikings — 25¢ Polymarket $44 (weight 33%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T09:20:07.700Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "36% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/pro-football-nfc-north-champion
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Pro%20Football%3A%20NFC%20North%20Champion
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev