72% — Who will win the 2026 Providence, RI mayoral election
Leader: Brett Smiley at 72% · Kalshi 72% · 3 contracts · $4K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:44:01 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Who will win the 2026 Providence, RI mayoral election?: Brett Smiley — 72¢ Kalshi $306 (weight 7%)
- Who will win the 2026 Providence, RI mayoral election?: David Morales — 25¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 81%)
- Who will win the 2026 Providence, RI mayoral election?: Allen Waters — 3¢ Kalshi $497 (weight 12%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.660Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "72% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/providencemayor
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20the%202026%20Providence%2C%20RI%20mayoral%20election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev