67% — Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027
Polymarket 67% · 1 contracts · $758 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 21:47:24 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects traders' assessment that a Canadian province will formally schedule a referendum on independence before the end of 2026. The 48% level suggests near-parity between scenarios where provincial separation momentum builds significantly versus those where national unity prevails or independence movements remain dormant. The main drivers are Quebec's political trajectory—where sovereigntist parties periodically dominate provincial politics—and economic conditions that might fuel separatist sentiment in resource-rich provinces. Federal-provincial tensions, particularly around fiscal arrangements or constitutional issues, could shift dynamics either direction. The most significant catalyst would be a provincial election victory by an explicitly pro-independence party with a clear referendum mandate, most likely in Quebec, though such outcomes remain uncertain given shifting voter preferences and the high political bar for scheduling referendums.

Key factors:
- Quebec's current government composition and sovereigntist party polling; a Bloc Québécois or Parti Québécois-led government makes a referendum significantly more likely
- Electoral timelines in Quebec and other provinces—provincial elections scheduled before end of 2026 create the procedural opportunity for pro-independence parties to gain power
- Recent federal-provincial disputes over healthcare funding, immigration, or equalization payments that could strengthen separatist messaging
- Historical volatility in independence sentiment; polling on Quebec sovereignty regularly fluctuates 10-20 percentage points based on economic conditions and political scandals
- The legal and procedural requirements—a province must hold an election or secure legislative support, not merely express interest; scheduling requires formal legislative action

Contracts:
- Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? — 67¢ Polymarket $758 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T21:20:11.322Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "67% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/province-schedule-referendum-to-leave-canada
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20a%20province%20schedule%20a%20referendum%20to%20leave%20Canada%20before%202027
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev