97% — Will Bill Pulte formally hold the role of Acting Director of National Intelligence before June 20, 2026
Leader: Before July 7, 2026 at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 3 contracts · $9K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 02:35:04 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that Bill Pulte will be appointed to formally serve as Acting Director of National Intelligence before July 7, 2026—roughly 10 days from now. The 71% price indicates traders assess this as more likely than not, though with meaningful uncertainty. The primary driver is whether the current or incoming administration decides to make this appointment in the coming days. Key factors traders are weighing include Pulte's existing government role or prior experience in intelligence matters, any recent public statements or nominations from administration officials, and institutional precedent for appointing individuals to this role. The resolution depends entirely on whether an official appointment occurs before the deadline. Contracts at earlier dates (June 20 and July 1) trade lower, suggesting traders expect the decision point to be immediate but not necessarily immediate.

Key factors:
- Official appointment would require formal announcement from the President or relevant administration officials within 10 days
- Pulte's prior roles or qualifications in national security or intelligence would likely be cited in any appointment
- No prior public indication as of June 10 has been widely reported, making this either imminent or unlikely
- Market pricing suggests 71% confidence for July 7 deadline but only 47% for July 1 and 41% for June 20, indicating uncertainty about timing
- Acting directorships typically bypass Senate confirmation, meaning institutional barriers are lower than permanent appointments

Contracts:
- Will Bill Pulte formally hold the role of Acting Director of National Intelligence before July 7, 2026?: Before July 7, 2026 — 97¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 74%)
- Will Bill Pulte formally hold the role of Acting Director of National Intelligence before July 1, 2026?: Before July 1, 2026 — 97¢ Kalshi $222 (weight 3%)
- Will Bill Pulte formally hold the role of Acting Director of National Intelligence before June 20, 2026?: Before June 20, 2026 — 96¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 24%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-20T13:20:20.457Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/pultedni
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Bill%20Pulte%20formally%20hold%20the%20role%20of%20Acting%20Director%20of%20National%20Intelligence%20before%20June%2020%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev