9% — Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026
Polymarket 9% · 1 contracts · $7K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 04:52:12 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the estimated likelihood that Vladimir Putin will no longer serve as President of Russia by year-end 2026—roughly seven months away. At 12%, the market reflects extremely low expectations for regime change, suggesting traders view Putin's political position as highly stable over this timeframe. The baseline is shaped by Russia's institutional continuity and Putin's consolidated control, though the probability could shift significantly based on developments in the ongoing conflict with Ukraine, any sudden health concerns, or unexpected domestic political fractures. The most concrete resolution point is whether major geopolitical or internal developments occur that destabilize Putin's authority before the year ends. Currently, prediction markets price such scenarios as tail risks rather than base-case outcomes.

Key factors:
- Russia's current military engagement in Ukraine continues without indication of regime collapse, suggesting institutional stability remains high through 2026
- Comparison markets show similar low probabilities for other major leader exits (Zelenskyy 16%, Erdoğan 11%), indicating general market skepticism about rapid leadership transitions
- A 12-cent price implies traders assign meaningful probability to unexpected events, but within a narrow cone that strongly favors continuity
- No scheduled elections, mandatory transitions, or known succession mechanisms in Russia's political system create natural near-term opportunities for leadership change
- Trading volume ($24k+ in 24 hours) shows modest but consistent interest, suggesting the contract is priced by a functioning market rather than illiquid speculation

Contracts:
- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? — 9¢ Polymarket $7K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T04:20:08.677Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "9% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-december-31
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Putin%20out%20as%20President%20of%20Russia%20by%20December%2031%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev