3% — Putin out as President of Russia by June 30
Polymarket 3% · 1 contracts · $171K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 14:25:43 UTC

Why this matters:
This market reflects a 3% probability that Putin ceases to be President of Russia by June 30, 2026—approximately 17 days from today. The low probability reflects the institutional stability of Russia's political system and absence of imminent succession signals. The metric would shift primarily on evidence of health crisis, coup activity, constitutional change, or explicit statements from power centers indicating transition. Since the resolution date is 17 days away, any major political event—unexpected government announcements, military developments, or health disclosures—represents the main remaining catalyst for significant probability movement. The market essentially prices this as an extremely low-probability tail event within a compressed timeframe.

Key factors:
- Putin has held the presidency since 2000 with no announced succession plans or constitutional changes currently in motion
- Recent constitutional amendments (2020) extended potential presidential tenure through 2036, suggesting institutional intent for continuity
- No credible reporting indicates imminent health crises, military coup attempts, or factional power struggles at the highest levels of Russian government
- The 17-day resolution window leaves minimal time for political upheaval to develop and crystallize into actual presidential transition
- Market is priced at historical lows for such events, indicating consensus view that near-term removal is extremely unlikely absent unprecedented developments

Contracts:
- Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? — 3¢ Polymarket $171K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "3% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-june-30
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Putin%20out%20as%20President%20of%20Russia%20by%20June%2030
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev