11% — Where will Trump and Putin's first meeting after their planned August 15, 2025 meeting in Alaska occur Leader: China at 11% · Kalshi 11% · 7 contracts · $11 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-19 14:24:50 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes. Why this matters: This market estimates an 8% chance that Trump and Putin's first meeting after their planned August 2025 Alaska summit will occur at a specific location covered by one of the available contract outcomes. The low probability reflects the high uncertainty inherent in predicting where two world leaders will meet months in advance, combined with the possibility that they may not meet again before the market's resolution date. The current level is primarily driven by the difficulty of pinpointing a single venue when multiple countries could plausibly host such a diplomatic event, and by the compressed timeframe between the August 2025 meeting and typical market resolution windows. Key catalysts include official diplomatic announcements about scheduled summits, geopolitical developments that might prompt accelerated or delayed meetings, and any public statements from either administration about planned engagements. The market will sharpen significantly once concrete meeting plans are announced through official diplomatic channels. Key factors: - Official bilateral diplomatic schedule: Announcements from the U.S. State Department or Russian Foreign Ministry stating planned summit locations and dates would directly resolve or narrow contract outcomes - Geopolitical crisis events: Major international incidents occurring after August 2025 could accelerate or prevent a follow-up meeting, affecting whether one occurs during the contract's timeframe - Third-country diplomatic precedent: Historical patterns of where U.S. and Russian leaders have met (neutral venues like Geneva, Helsinki, or summits in allied countries) provide baseline expectations - Temporal constraint: The market's resolution deadline relative to August 2025 determines the window in which a meeting must occur to trigger any of these contracts - Contract coverage gaps: If their next meeting occurs at a location not listed among the available outcomes, all contracts would fail to resolve as winners Contracts: - Where will Trump and Putin next meet?: China — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Where will Trump and Putin next meet?: Germany — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Where will Trump and Putin's first meeting after their planned August 15, 2025 meeting in Alaska occur?: Hungary — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Where will Trump and Putin's first meeting after their planned August 15, 2025 meeting in Alaska occur?: Russia — 7¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 100%) - Where will Trump and Putin's first meeting after their planned August 15, 2025 meeting in Alaska occur?: Alaska — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Where will Trump and Putin's first meeting after their planned August 15, 2025 meeting in Alaska occur?: Saudi Arabia — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Where will Trump and Putin's first meeting after their planned August 15, 2025 meeting in Alaska occur?: United Arab Emirates — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-19T14:20:18.758Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "11% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/putindjtlocation Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Where%20will%20Trump%20and%20Putin's%20first%20meeting%20after%20their%20planned%20August%2015%2C%202025%20meeting%20in%20Alaska%20occur Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev