17% — Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Russia Leader: Turkey at 17% · Kalshi 17% · 5 contracts · $4 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-20 22:14:20 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability indicates a 7% chance that Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy's next meeting will occur in Russia, compared to a 22% chance in Turkey, which currently leads. The low probability reflects the ongoing conflict between the two countries and the security, diplomatic, and logistical barriers to such a meeting on Russian soil. Factors supporting a Russia meeting would include significant de-escalation or a formal ceasefire agreement that restores diplomatic normalcy. Conversely, sustained hostilities or Western alliance pressure against legitimizing Russian territory would keep probabilities low. The primary uncertainty driver is whether peace negotiations gain momentum and where they would be held—a scheduled summit announcement in any location would immediately shift these probabilities. Resolution depends on either an actual meeting occurring or a clear declaration that such talks will not happen. Key factors: - No direct Putin-Zelenskyy meeting has occurred since the 2022 invasion; diplomatic contact remains minimal and heavily intermediated - Turkey currently leads at 22% probability due to its neutral status and prior role hosting peace talks, versus Russia at 7% reflecting security and legitimacy concerns - Any formal ceasefire or peace framework agreement would immediately increase the probability of meetings in multiple venues, including Russia - Scheduled international summits, UN events, or announced negotiations would create resolution catalysts and shift the probability distribution across all locations - Current market volume ($580 in the Turkey contract vs. $0 in Russia contract) suggests active differentiation between venues rather than uncertainty about whether a meeting occurs Contracts: - Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Turkey?: Turkey — 17¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 25%) - Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Hungary?: Hungary — 11¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 25%) - Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in the USA?: United States — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Russia?: Russia — 6¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 25%) - Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Ukraine?: Ukraine — 4¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 25%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-20T21:20:49.568Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "17% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/putinzelenskyylocation Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Putin%20and%20Zelenskyy%20meet%20next%20in%20Russia Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev