50% — Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC
Leader: Beijing Guoan FC at 50% · Polymarket 50% · 3 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-25 00:31:24 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: Beijing Guoan FC — 50¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 66%)
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: Draw (Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC) — 27¢ Polymarket $462 (weight 13%)
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: Qingdao Xihaian FC — 25¢ Polymarket $721 (weight 21%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-20T13:20:30.429Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "50% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/qingdao-xihaian-fc-vs-beijing-guoan-fc
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Qingdao%20Xihaian%20FC%20vs.%20Beijing%20Guoan%20FC
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev