78% — Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC - More Markets
Leader: O/U 1.5 at 78% · Polymarket 78% · 9 contracts · $18K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-25 00:56:04 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 9 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 54% probability reflects market expectations that both Qingdao Xihaian FC and Beijing Guoan FC will score in their upcoming match. The prediction is driven primarily by the teams' recent offensive output and defensive vulnerabilities in Chinese Super League play. Market pricing suggests traders view a high-scoring contest as more likely than low-scoring outcomes, with minimal trading activity on spread markets indicating less conviction around decisive victory margins. The match result will resolve this question definitively on its scheduled date. Liquidity concentration in the both-teams-to-score contract ($2,591 in 24-hour volume) versus near-zero activity on spreads suggests this is the primary focus of market participants assessing this fixture.

Key factors:
- Qingdao Xihaian FC's recent goals-for and goals-against rates in their last 5-10 matches compared to Beijing Guoan FC's defensive record
- Beijing Guoan FC's home or away status in this fixture, as venue historically affects offensive and defensive performance in Chinese football
- Both teams' current injury status affecting key attacking or defensive players, which materially impacts scoring likelihood
- Head-to-head scoring patterns in previous meetings between these clubs over the past 2-3 seasons
- Recent league-wide trends in both-teams-to-score frequency for matches involving teams in similar competitive standing

Contracts:
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5 — 78¢ Polymarket $75 (weight 0%)
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score — 57¢ Polymarket $3K (weight 16%)
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5 — 54¢ Polymarket $12K (weight 65%)
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5 — 33¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 9%)
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC - More Markets: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5) — 26¢ Polymarket $145 (weight 1%)
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5 — 16¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 9%)
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC - More Markets: Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5) — 11¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC - More Markets: Qingdao Xihaian FC (-1.5) — 9¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 1 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-20T13:20:30.429Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "78% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/qingdao-xihaian-fc-vs-beijing-guoan-fc-more-markets
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Qingdao%20Xihaian%20FC%20vs.%20Beijing%20Guoan%20FC%20-%20More%20Markets
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev