30% — Will PLQ win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election
Kalshi 30% · 3 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-09 23:00:40 UTC

Why this matters:
This 32% probability represents the chance that the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) will win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election. The current odds reflect PLQ's position as a significant but not favored contender in a competitive three-way race involving the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) and Québec Solidaire (QS). The probability would likely shift based on polling trends, leadership changes, or major policy announcements from any of the three main parties. The election date itself—scheduled for October 3, 2026—represents the key event that will resolve this contract. Between now and then, federal-provincial dynamics, economic conditions, and campaign momentum could substantially move these odds.

Key factors:
- Current polling shows PLQ third or competitive second depending on methodology, with typical support ranges between 25-35% in recent surveys
- The CAQ, as the incumbent government, holds structural advantages but faces potential anti-incumbent sentiment after the 2022 election
- Québec Solidaire has mobilized younger voters and environmentally-conscious segments, potentially fragmenting the center-left vote that PLQ traditionally relied upon
- Leadership credibility and campaign execution will be critical; any major scandal or policy gaffe could significantly shift voter allocation
- The October 3, 2026 election date is fixed, making this a binary resolution event with no possibility of postponement or extension

Contracts:
- Will CAQ win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election?: CAQ — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)
- Will PLQ win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election?: PLQ — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)
- Will PQ win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election?: PQ — 61¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-09T22:20:49.243Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "30% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/quebecassembly
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20PLQ%20win%20the%202026%20Quebec%20National%20Assembly%20election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev