96% — Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13800 total car shipments in 2026 Leader: Above 13000 at 96% · Kalshi 96% · 13 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 00:38:33 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 13 outcomes. Why this matters: Markets are assigning a 94% probability that Ferrari will deliver more than 13,800 cars in 2026, based on aggregated derivatives pricing. This reflects confidence in Ferrari's ability to meet or exceed this shipment threshold in the coming year. The probability is driven primarily by Ferrari's recent production trajectory and announced capacity plans, balanced against supply-chain risks and potential demand softening in luxury vehicle markets. The resolution hinges on Ferrari's official 2026 shipment report, typically disclosed in early 2027 as part of annual financial results. Uncertainty could shift substantially if the company provides revised production guidance or if broader automotive demand signals deteriorate meaningfully before year-end. Key factors: - Ferrari's 2025 production run and stated capacity targets for 2026 will anchor baseline expectations for annual shipment volume - Luxury vehicle demand in key markets (Europe, Asia, North America) through Q4 2026 will determine whether Ferrari can sustain or accelerate delivery rates - Supply-chain stability for specialized components and materials will constrain upside production capacity if disruptions occur - The wider price curve shows 90% probability for >13,200 units but only 13% for >13,900, indicating tight consensus around 13,500–13,800 shipments - Quarterly delivery reports or production updates released before year-end 2026 could significantly shift market expectations if actual pace diverges from current trajectory Contracts: - Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13000 total car shipments in 2026?: Above 13000 — 96¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13100 total car shipments in 2026?: Above 13100 — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13300 total car shipments in 2026?: Above 13300 — 90¢ Kalshi $30 (weight 1%) - Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13200 total car shipments in 2026?: Above 13200 — 90¢ Kalshi $12 (weight 0%) - Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13400 total car shipments in 2026?: Above 13400 — 85¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13500 total car shipments in 2026?: Above 13500 — 70¢ Kalshi $158 (weight 3%) - Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13600 total car shipments in 2026?: Above 13600 — 61¢ Kalshi $188 (weight 4%) - Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13700 total car shipments in 2026?: Above 13700 — 33¢ Kalshi $111 (weight 2%) - ... and 5 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T00:20:50.104Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/racea Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Ferrari%20N.V.%20report%20Above%2013800%20total%20car%20shipments%20in%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev