4% — Rain in Austin in Apr 2026
Kalshi 4% · 1 contracts · $186 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-29 05:00:57 UTC

Why this matters:
The 93% probability indicates market participants assess a high likelihood of measurable rainfall in Austin during June 2026, with most conviction centered on exceeding 3 inches. This high probability reflects typical June weather patterns in central Texas, which historically receives precipitation from both organized systems and afternoon thunderstorms. The market's confidence diminishes sharply for heavier rainfall thresholds—contracts pricing in 6+ inches trade at just 20 cents, suggesting significant uncertainty about intense precipitation events. The main drivers are historical June rainfall climatology for Austin and current atmospheric conditions as the month approaches. The probability will sharpen considerably once June 1 arrives and actual precipitation begins accumulating, with the first two weeks of the month likely to be decisive since early month activity would establish whether conditions are tracking toward the 3-inch threshold. Real-time weather forecasts and observed rainfall totals will ultimately determine the outcome.

Key factors:
- Austin's June climatological average rainfall is approximately 4.8 inches, supporting the elevated probability for exceeding 3 inches
- The market prices 6+ inches at only 20 cents despite a 93% baseline, indicating skepticism about extreme precipitation relative to moderate thresholds
- Current 24-hour trading volume concentrates on the 3-inch and 6-inch contracts ($425 and $878), suggesting these are the key decision points for market participants
- Historical June data shows high variability in Austin rainfall, with some years producing 1 inch and others exceeding 8 inches within the same calendar month
- Resolution occurs based on recorded precipitation data from Austin, which is operationally verifiable and leaves no ambiguity about outcome determination

Contracts:
- Rain in Austin in Jun 2026?: Above 6 inches — 4¢ Kalshi $186 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-28T08:20:49.587Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "4% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/rainausm
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Rain%20in%20Austin%20in%20Apr%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev