3% — Rain in Denver in Apr 2026 Leader: Above 2 inches at 3% · Kalshi 3% · 2 contracts · $3K volume · low confidence Updated 2026-06-27 07:48:10 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes. Why this matters: This market prices the probability that Denver will receive more than 2 inches of rain during May 2026 at 24%, reflecting trader expectations of below-average precipitation for the month. The current probability reflects May's typical climate patterns in Denver, which is one of the driest months climatologically, combined with seasonal forecasts available to traders. The main driver of price movement would be updated long-range weather forecasts from NOAA or shifts in atmospheric patterns suggesting unusual moisture delivery to the region. Resolution occurs automatically on May 31, 2026, when actual measured rainfall at Denver International Airport becomes official data. Traders are distinguishing between three thresholds (2, 3, and 4 inches), with sharply lower prices for higher rainfall amounts, indicating that above 2 inches is viewed as the most likely outcome among the outcomes tested, but still an uncommon event for May. Key factors: - May is Denver's sixth-driest month on average (0.95 inches historical mean), so 2+ inches would represent roughly double typical precipitation - NOAA's 30-day outlook issued in late May 2026 will be the most significant catalyst for repricing, as it incorporates real-time model consensus closer to resolution date - Denver's location on the leeward side of the Rocky Mountains creates a rain shadow, with most moist systems losing precipitation before reaching the area - Market pricing reflects three discrete outcomes at the same event (2, 3, and 4 inches), showing traders expect the probability of higher thresholds drops sharply—3+ inches at only 3 cents versus 2+ at 22 cents - Weather patterns in late April 2026 will likely inform initial trader positioning, as spring storm activity can affect May's accumulated totals Contracts: - Rain in Denver in Jun 2026?: Above 2 inches — 3¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 92%) - Rain in Denver in Jun 2026?: Above 5 inches — 3¢ Kalshi $239 (weight 8%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-27T07:20:49.567Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "3% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/raindenm Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Rain%20in%20Denver%20in%20Apr%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev