24% — Rain in Houston in Apr 2026
Kalshi 24% · 1 contracts · $16K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-29 05:00:41 UTC

Why this matters:
Markets are pricing a 87% chance that Houston receives more than 3 inches of rain during May 2026. This represents traders' collective assessment of precipitation risk based on seasonal patterns and current weather data. The probability reflects May's position in Houston's wetter season, though the market shows declining conviction for heavier rainfall events—only 49% confidence in exceeding 7 inches. Key drivers include typical May moisture patterns in the Gulf Coast region and any tropical system development. Actual May rainfall measurements will resolve this contract in early June, providing the definitive outcome against the 3-inch threshold.

Key factors:
- May contract prices decline steeply with rainfall thresholds: 87% for >3 inches dropping to 49% for >7 inches, indicating uncertainty about storm intensity rather than whether rain occurs
- The 24-hour volume is highest on the extreme-rainfall contract (>7 inches at $499), suggesting recent trading activity focused on heavier precipitation scenarios
- Houston's climatological May rainfall averages 4.5–5.5 inches, placing the 3-inch threshold near historical norms and the 7-inch threshold in the 75th percentile range
- Final settlement depends on official National Weather Service measurements recorded at Houston's primary station during May 1–31, 2026
- Runner-up contract (76% for >5 inches) implies traders see moderate precipitation as highly likely but remain split on whether May reaches well-above-average totals

Contracts:
- Rain in Houston in Jun 2026?: Above 7 inches — 24¢ Kalshi $16K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-29T04:20:51.227Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "24% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/rainhoum
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Rain%20in%20Houston%20in%20Apr%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev