6% — Rain in Miami in Apr 2026
Leader: Above 2 inches at 6% · Kalshi 6% · 4 contracts · $11K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-30 00:18:39 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets are pricing an exceptionally high likelihood—94%—that Miami will receive more than 2 inches of rain during June 2026. This reflects the region's strong seasonal rainfall patterns during summer months when tropical systems become more active. The contract structure reveals traders are confident in exceeding the 2-inch threshold but much less certain about heavier precipitation; prices drop sharply for 3+ inches and fall to single digits for 6+ inches. The main driver is Miami's typical wet season climatology, though actual outcomes depend on tropical cyclone activity, atmospheric patterns, and local convection during the specific month. Resolution will occur after June 30, 2026, when National Weather Service precipitation data for Miami becomes final. Key uncertainty centers on whether an active hurricane season will produce significant rain events or if normal convective rainfall suffices to reach the threshold.

Key factors:
- Miami receives an average of 9-10 inches of rain in June historically, making 2+ inches well above typical summer rainfall odds
- Contract pricing shows sharp probability cliffs: 94% for >2 inches, 45% for >3 inches, and 5% for >6 inches, indicating traders distinguish between routine and above-normal precipitation
- No scheduled tropical events are currently known, so pricing reflects seasonal base rates rather than specific forecast model signals
- Actual monthly totals depend on timing and intensity of convective systems throughout June 2026, creating daily volatility potential
- The runner-up outcome at 44% appears to be a different rain threshold or alternative outcome, diluting total probability mass across the contract set

Contracts:
- Rain in Miami in Jun 2026?: Above 2 inches — 6¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 61%)
- Rain in Miami in Jun 2026?: Above 7 inches — 5¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 11%)
- Rain in Miami in Jun 2026?: Above 5 inches — 4¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 16%)
- Rain in Miami in Jun 2026?: Above 3 inches — 3¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 12%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-29T23:20:49.475Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "6% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/rainmiam
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Rain%20in%20Miami%20in%20Apr%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev