44% — Rain in NYC in Apr 2026
Leader: Above 1 inches at 44% · Kalshi 44% · 2 contracts · $1 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-29 05:00:57 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market prices the probability of measurable rainfall exceeding 1 inch in New York City during April 2026 at 5%, indicating traders view significant precipitation as unlikely during that month. April historically receives moderate rainfall in NYC, averaging around 4 inches, but the current low probability suggests traders are pricing in either below-average conditions or a specific dry pattern anticipated for that period. The resolution depends on official precipitation measurements from National Weather Service stations serving the NYC area. Key factors driving this assessment include seasonal weather patterns, ensemble forecasts as the month approaches, and comparison to historical April rainfall distributions. As April 2026 occurs after the current date, actual weather data will ultimately determine the outcome when the month concludes and official measurements are recorded.

Key factors:
- Historical April precipitation in NYC averages ~4 inches, making a sub-1 inch outcome less common than the 5% probability suggests
- Current market pricing reflects conditions well before April 2026 arrives; probability will shift substantially as seasonal forecasts update and the month approaches
- Official NWS precipitation totals from NYC area stations (Central Park gauge is standard) will determine resolution; no ambiguity in measurement once data is recorded
- The three-contract structure shows heavy concentration in the 1-inch threshold (92¢) versus 2-inch (6¢) and 3-inch (4¢), indicating trader consensus clusters around very dry outcomes
- Resolution occurs automatically when April 2026 concludes; this represents pure weather forecasting rather than discretionary or event-dependent uncertainty

Contracts:
- Rain in NYC in Jul 2026?: Above 1 inches — 44¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 100%)
- Rain in NYC in Jul 2026?: Above 2 inches — 32¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-29T04:20:49.774Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "44% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/rainnycm
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Rain%20in%20NYC%20in%20Apr%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev