97% — Will Nithya Raman beat Spencer Pratt by 1.0 to 2.0 points in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary
Kalshi 97% · 1 contracts · $1K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-28 04:08:30 UTC

Why this matters:
This contract measures the likelihood that Nithya Raman finishes exactly 1.0 to 2.0 percentage points ahead of Spencer Pratt in the Los Angeles mayoral primary. The 12% probability reflects that a narrow margin victory in this specific range is one of several possible outcomes, though the overall distribution suggests tighter races are priced lower and wider margins slightly higher. The primary result itself—scheduled for June 2026—will directly resolve this contract. Before then, polling trends, candidate spending, and voter turnout patterns in Los Angeles will inform market expectations about whether these two candidates finish in this particular point spread.

Key factors:
- The LA mayoral primary is the direct catalyst event; any current polls suggest Raman and Pratt are not top-tier frontrunners, limiting the probability of them both placing in the final results
- Related 1-point-margin contracts are priced at 17¢ (0-1 pt) and 15¢ (2-3 pt), indicating the 1-2 pt range sits between tighter and slightly wider margins in market expectations
- Voting patterns in Los Angeles municipal elections, including turnout and geographic support distribution, will determine whether these candidates' margins fall into this specific band rather than others
- The combined probability across all Raman-beats-Pratt margins (0-1, 1-2, 2-3, 4-5, 5-6 points) appears modest relative to other possible race outcomes
- Market volume is concentrated in the 0-1 point range ($1,298), suggesting traders see a close contest between these two as most likely if they both finish in primary calculations

Contracts:
- Will Nithya Raman beat Spencer Pratt by 3.0 to 4.0 points in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary?: Nithya Raman, 3-4% — 97¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-15T20:20:46.050Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ramanprattdiff
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Nithya%20Raman%20beat%20Spencer%20Pratt%20by%201.0%20to%202.0%20points%20in%20the%202026%20Los%20Angeles%20mayoral%20primary
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev