33% — Will Choosin' Texas be 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in May 2026
Kalshi 33% · 3 contracts · $13K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:32 UTC

Why this matters:
This prediction estimates a 4% chance that the song 'Choosin' Texas' reaches the number-one position on the Billboard Hot 100 chart during May 2026. The low probability reflects that achieving the top spot requires sustained commercial success across radio, streaming, and sales metrics simultaneously, which most releases fail to achieve. The probability would increase if the song demonstrates momentum in streaming charts, radio airplay growth, or unexpected viral popularity in the weeks leading up to chart publication dates in May. The key driver of resolution will be the Billboard Hot 100 rankings released throughout May 2026, which aggregate sales, streaming, and radio data to determine weekly chart positions. Historical chart data shows that songs typically need weeks of building popularity or major promotional events to reach number one.

Key factors:
- Current streaming and radio chart positioning of 'Choosin' Texas' as of late April 2026
- Whether the song's artist or label launches significant promotional campaigns or marketing pushes during May 2026
- Competitive landscape: the number and strength of other songs competing for the top position during May 2026
- Historical track record of songs by the same artist reaching or approaching top-ten chart positions
- Weekly Billboard Hot 100 publications throughout May 2026 showing actual chart progression and performance metrics

Contracts:
- Will I Knew It, I Knew You be 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in July 2026?: I Knew It, I Knew You — 14¢ Kalshi $8K (weight 63%)
- Will Choosin' Texas be 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in July 2026?: Choosin' Texas — 81¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 35%)
- Will stupid song be 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in July 2026?: stupid song — 3¢ Kalshi $244 (weight 2%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:49.003Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "33% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ranklist1song
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Choosin'%20Texas%20be%201%20on%20the%20Billboard%20Hot%20100%20in%20May%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev