25% — Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top D/ST
Leader: 2026-27 Season Top D/ST?: Los Angeles R D/ST at 25% · Kalshi 25% · 18 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 14:12:02 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 18 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates the probability that a specific NFL defense/special teams unit will finish as the top-scoring fantasy asset at their position during the 2026-27 season. The 3% probability assigned to the leading contenders reflects the inherent unpredictability of season-long performance: defensive rankings depend on schedule strength, coaching changes, player health, and trade activity between now and September 2026. Currently, Seattle, Dallas, and Houston are tied as favorites, suggesting roughly equal perceived chances. The market will likely consolidate once preseason schedules are released and rosters finalize in late August 2026, introducing more concrete information about defensive line strength, secondary quality, and coaching staff. Resolution occurs after the regular season ends in January 2027, when official fantasy scoring totals determine the winner.

Key factors:
- Defensive personnel turnover and free agency signings between May 2026 and September 2026 could substantially alter roster quality for any of the three leading teams
- Strength of schedule variations significantly impact total fantasy points; teams facing weaker offenses accumulate sack and turnover statistics at different rates
- Coaching changes, including defensive coordinator hiring or scheme adjustments, affect defensive output and fantasy point generation
- Preseason performance and training camp reports in August 2026 will provide concrete evidence of roster improvements or injuries, likely causing probability shifts
- The equal 3% pricing across three different franchises suggests low confidence in differentiation; any team-specific news could create market-wide repricing

Contracts:
- Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top D/ST?: Los Angeles R D/ST — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%)
- Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top D/ST?: Houston D/ST — 18¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%)
- Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top D/ST?: Atlanta D/ST — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%)
- Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top D/ST?: Green Bay D/ST — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%)
- Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top D/ST?: Cleveland D/ST — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%)
- Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top D/ST?: Detroit D/ST — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%)
- Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top D/ST?: Indianapolis D/ST — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%)
- Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top D/ST?: Kansas City D/ST — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%)
- ... and 10 more

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-26T13:20:49.505Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "25% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ranklistffdst
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20be%20Fantasy%20Football%3A%202026-27%20Season%20Top%20D%2FST
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev