96% — Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top D/ST
Leader: 2026-27 Season Top D/ST?: Cincinnati D/ST at 96% · Kalshi 96% · 14 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-22 00:23:59 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 14 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market is pricing Houston's defense at an 18% chance of finishing as the top-scoring fantasy defense for the 2026-27 NFL season. Houston currently leads a fragmented field where the runner-up sits at 11%, indicating no defense has overwhelming consensus. The probability reflects both Houston's recent defensive performance and the inherent uncertainty in predicting seasonal rankings—which depend on injury luck, opponent strength, and scheme adjustments. The outcome resolves after the regular season ends in early January 2027, when actual fantasy points are tallied across all defenses. Key drivers include Houston's current roster composition, any major offseason personnel changes, and how defensive performance correlates with team wins and opponent difficulty. Arizona, Buffalo, Chicago, Cleveland, and Denver are priced notably lower, suggesting the market views Houston as more likely to sustain defensive production than other franchises.

Key factors:
- Houston's defensive personnel and coordinator continuity heading into 2026-27, including retention of key pass rushers and secondary players
- Strength of schedule and opponent offensive power across the full 17-game regular season, which directly influences fantasy scoring opportunity
- Injury rates among starting defenders during the season, particularly for Houston's highest-impact players
- Rule changes or officiating patterns that year could favor defensive scoring (sacks, turnovers, defensive touchdowns)
- Overall team win-loss record and defensive game script, as strong teams face fewer passing situations, reducing fantasy points

Contracts:
- Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top D/ST?: Cincinnati D/ST — 96¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top D/ST?: Houston D/ST — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top D/ST?: Los Angeles R D/ST — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top D/ST?: Baltimore D/ST — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top D/ST?: Indianapolis D/ST — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top D/ST?: Las Vegas D/ST — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top D/ST?: Miami D/ST — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top D/ST?: Arizona D/ST — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- ... and 6 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-21T23:20:55.247Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ranklistffdst
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20be%20Fantasy%20Football%3A%202026-27%20Season%20Top%20D%2FST
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev