24% — Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top QB
Leader: 2026-27 Season Top QB?: Jaxson Dart at 24% · Kalshi 24% · 10 contracts · $188 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-13 04:00:48 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 10 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Bo Nix is assigned a 19% probability of finishing as the top fantasy quarterback in the 2026-27 NFL season, reflecting market expectations about his scoring output relative to established alternatives. This probability reflects ongoing uncertainty about Nix's performance trajectory following his rookie season, balanced against the established track records of veterans like Josh Allen (5% implied) and Brock Purdy (8% implied). The probability would rise if preseason indicators suggest sustained improvement or if injury concerns affect competing quarterbacks; it would decline if statistical projections or training camp reports suggest stronger-than-expected performance from rivals. The resolution will depend entirely on cumulative passing yards, touchdowns, and league scoring formats during the 2026-17 regular season, with clarity emerging gradually through the season rather than on a single event date.

Key factors:
- Bo Nix's actual 2025-26 season performance and statistical trajectory compared to competing quarterbacks heading into 2026-17
- Injury status and availability of higher-priced competitors, particularly Josh Allen and Brock Purdy, through preseason and into the regular season
- League-wide passing volume trends and offensive scheme fit for Nix's team relative to peers with higher current market valuations
- Preseason performance metrics and official depth charts that indicate expanded or diminished playing time and opportunity for Nix
- Changes to fantasy scoring rules or league format that could advantage rushing-oriented versus pure passing quarterbacks

Contracts:
- Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top QB?: Jaxson Dart — 24¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top QB?: Justin Herbert — 8¢ Kalshi $71 (weight 38%)
- Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top QB?: Kyler Murray — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top QB?: Jalen Hurts — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top QB?: Josh Allen — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top QB?: Lamar Jackson — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top QB?: Jordan Love — 4¢ Kalshi $117 (weight 62%)
- Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top QB?: Matthew Stafford — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 2 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-13T03:20:49.968Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "24% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ranklistffqb
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20be%20Fantasy%20Football%3A%202026-27%20Season%20Top%20QB
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev