11% — Will Donald Trump be the #2 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People
Kalshi 11% · 2 contracts · $80 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 09:43:02 UTC

Why this matters:
This represents the probability that Donald Trump will be the second-most-searched person globally on Google's 2026 year-end rankings. The 12% probability reflects his current media prominence but suggests skepticism about achieving the #2 spot specifically, as global search rankings depend on unpredictable events and the broader information diet of billions of users worldwide. The primary driver of this probability is Trump's sustained political activity—recent contracts show high activity on Truth Social and ongoing policy actions—but the outcome hinges on whether external events amplify his search volume relative to other globally prominent figures throughout the remainder of 2026. The resolution depends entirely on Google's final year-end data release, typically published in December, making it difficult to predict with certainty until then.

Key factors:
- Trump's current media coverage and political activity levels, measured through proxies like his Truth Social posting frequency and policy announcements, which suggest he remains a significant search driver
- Competitive landscape uncertainty—the #2 ranking depends on search volumes for other globally prominent figures, including political leaders, entertainment figures, and unforeseeable newsmakers
- Major political or news events between now and December 2026 that could either dramatically increase or decrease Trump-related searches relative to other individuals
- Google's specific methodology and weighting for their year-end rankings, which may emphasize search volume growth, absolute volume, or trending patterns differently
- International search behavior variations, since 'global' rankings reflect aggregated searches across all countries and regions where Google operates

Contracts:
- Will Bad Bunny be the #2 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People?: Bad Bunny — 16¢ Kalshi $50 (weight 63%)
- Will Donald Trump be the #2 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People?: Donald Trump — 5¢ Kalshi $30 (weight 37%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:48.877Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "11% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ranklistgooglesearch2
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Donald%20Trump%20be%20the%20%232%20rank%20on%20Google%E2%80%99s%20Year%20in%20Search%202026%20Global%20%E2%80%93%20People
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev