26% — Will Baby Keem be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs Global chart in April 2026 Kalshi 26% · 8 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 06:46:52 UTC Why this matters: This probability represents the market's assessment that Baby Keem will reach the #1 position on Spotify's global daily chart during April 2026. At 36%, the market implies Baby Keem is less likely than several established artists like Michael Jackson (95%) to hit this milestone. The current level reflects Baby Keem's streaming patterns and chart history relative to competing artists. The probability would move upward if he releases a major single with significant promotional backing, or downward if other artists dominate the period. The resolution depends on actual daily chart data from Spotify throughout April 2026, with the outcome determined by real-time streaming metrics during that month. Related markets show Michael Jackson heavily favored for June (95¢), suggesting legacy catalog and established fanbases currently drive top-chart positions more than emerging or mid-tier artists. Key factors: - Baby Keem's historical peak chart positions on Spotify's global daily rankings and typical streaming volume relative to the 95% probability assigned to Michael Jackson - Whether Baby Keem releases a new single or album before or during April 2026, and the marketing intensity behind any release during that window - Competitive dynamics: which other major artists are releasing or promoting during April 2026, since chart dominance is relative - The time gap between now (June 2026 in the prompt context) and the April 2026 resolution period, creating uncertainty about future releases and streaming trends - Base rates for artists in Baby Keem's tier reaching #1 on global daily charts versus established legacy acts that currently dominate top contract prices Contracts: - Will Nicki Minaj be #1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs Global chart in June 2026?: Nicki Minaj — 53¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 76%) - Will Justin Bieber be #1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs Global chart in June 2026?: Justin Bieber — 39¢ Kalshi $528 (weight 22%) - Will Drake be #1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs Global chart in June 2026?: Drake — 4¢ Kalshi $51 (weight 2%) - Will Burna Boy be #1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs Global chart in June 2026?: Burna Boy — 3¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 0%) - Will BTS be #1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs Global chart in July 2026?: BTS — 4¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 0%) - Will Michael Jackson be #1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs Global chart in July 2026?: Michael Jackson — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Olivia Rodrigo be #1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs Global chart in July 2026?: Olivia Rodrigo — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Taylor Swift be #1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs Global chart in July 2026?: Taylor Swift — 97¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:20:49.975Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "26% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ranklistsongspotglobal Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Baby%20Keem%20be%201%20on%20the%20Any%20Spotify%20Daily%20Top%20Songs%20Global%20chart%20in%20April%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev