77% — Will the Fed cut rates 1 times
Leader: Exactly 0 cuts at 77% · Kalshi 77% · 3 contracts · $19K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:41 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability measures whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates exactly once during 2026. The 54% figure reflects market expectation that no cuts will occur, suggesting traders view current monetary policy as appropriately restrictive. The market is pricing in highly divergent scenarios: a 4% probability of a June 2026 cut signals minimal near-term easing expectations, while the 46% probability assigned to any cuts before 2027 indicates meaningful uncertainty about whether the Fed pauses rate cuts or holds steady throughout 2026. The primary drivers are inflation trajectories and labor market strength; persistent inflation or robust employment would support the zero-cut scenario, while economic weakening or disinflation could trigger multiple reductions. The June 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting represents the most immediate catalyst for probability shifts.

Key factors:
- June 2026 FOMC meeting is priced at only 4% probability for a 25bps cut, indicating market consensus expects no imminent action
- The zero-cuts contract (54%) outprices any specific multi-cut scenario, suggesting traders view extended pause as baseline outcome
- Inflation data releases between now and June 2026 will be the primary driver of probability movement, particularly PCE and CPI reports
- Labor market indicators including employment reports and wage growth will influence whether the market maintains the restrictive-hold view
- The 46% probability for any cuts before 2027 creates an asymmetric distribution where most non-zero scenarios cluster at 0 cuts rather than spreading across 1, 2, or 3-cut outcomes

Contracts:
- Will the Fed cut rates 0 times?: Exactly 0 cuts — 77¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 20%)
- Will the Fed cut rates 1 times?: Exactly 1 cut — 13¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 25%)
- Will the Fed cut rates 2 times?: Exactly 2 cuts — 5¢ Kalshi $10K (weight 55%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:50.337Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "77% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ratecutcount
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Fed%20cut%20rates%201%20times
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev