93% — Will Roblox Corporation report above 36 billion hours engaged in Q1 2026 Leader: Above 33 billion at 93% · Kalshi 93% · 19 contracts · $137 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-26 02:34:23 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 19 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability reflects market expectations that Roblox will report more than 36 billion hours of user engagement in Q2 2026. The 9-cent contract price suggests traders view this outcome as unlikely but possible. Roblox's engagement metrics have historically been volatile, influenced by new game releases, platform updates, and seasonal user activity patterns. The Q2 period typically captures spring/early summer engagement trends. Resolution depends entirely on Roblox's official Q2 2026 earnings report, expected in late July or early August 2026, which will disclose total hours engaged. The contract structure shows declining probabilities across higher engagement thresholds—markets price 68% odds for above 32 billion hours but only 9% for above 36 billion—indicating uncertainty about whether the platform can sustain growth at the highest end. Key factors: - Q2 2026 will end June 30, 2026, with results typically reported 3-4 weeks later in late July or early August - Roblox reported approximately 35-36 billion hours engaged in recent quarters; sustaining or exceeding 36 billion represents continued growth or maintenance of peak levels - Seasonal patterns affect engagement; Q2 typically includes spring break and school transitions, which can drive higher user activity - Major platform updates, game releases, or technical outages during April-June 2026 would materially impact the hours engaged figure - The contract's 9-cent price reflects low market conviction for this outcome, suggesting most traders see >36 billion hours as an above-trend result Contracts: - Will Roblox Corporation report Above 33 billion hours engaged in Q3 2026?: Above 33 billion — 93¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Roblox Corporation report Above 32 billion hours engaged in Q3 2026?: Above 32 billion — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Roblox Corporation report Above 34 billion hours engaged in Q3 2026?: Above 34 billion — 77¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Roblox Corporation report Above 35 billion hours engaged in Q3 2026?: Above 35 billion — 61¢ Kalshi $29 (weight 21%) - Will Roblox Corporation report Above 138 million daily active users in Q3 2026?: Above 138 million — 54¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Roblox Corporation report Above 142 million daily active users in Q3 2026?: Above 142 million — 37¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Roblox Corporation report Above 36 billion hours engaged in Q3 2026?: Above 36 billion — 36¢ Kalshi $108 (weight 79%) - Will Roblox Corporation report Above 146 million daily active users in Q3 2026?: Above 146 million — 29¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 11 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-26T02:20:50.500Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "93% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/rblx Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Roblox%20Corporation%20report%20above%2036%20billion%20hours%20engaged%20in%20Q1%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev