37% — Will Roblox Corporation report Above 170 million daily active users in fiscal 2026
Leader: Above 145 million at 37% · Kalshi 37% · 12 contracts · $25 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 16:23:34 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 12 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market is pricing a 66% likelihood that Roblox will report above 170 million daily active users in fiscal 2026, based on trading activity across 14 related contracts. The probability reflects expectations about Roblox's user growth trajectory relative to historical performance and platform maturation. Currently, traders are more confident in the platform hitting 150 million DAU (priced at 25%) than 170 million (priced at 3%), suggesting meaningful uncertainty about whether growth will accelerate beyond recent trends. The outcome will be determined by Roblox's official fiscal 2026 earnings report, which typically arrives in early 2027. Key drivers include whether Roblox successfully expands into new geographic markets, retains user engagement across age cohorts, and executes on platform monetization improvements—all factors visible in their quarterly disclosures leading up to the final report.

Key factors:
- Roblox's most recent quarterly DAU figures and year-over-year growth rate relative to the 170 million threshold
- Trading volume disparity: the 170M contract trades at only 3¢ versus 25¢ for 150M, indicating concentrated skepticism about aggressive growth
- Historical seasonality and retention patterns in Roblox user metrics across fiscal quarters
- Competitive dynamics with other user-generated content platforms and their ability to retain younger demographics
- Roblox management guidance or forward-looking statements about engagement and user acquisition in their upcoming earnings calls

Contracts:
- Will Roblox Corporation report Above 145 million daily active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 145 million — 37¢ Kalshi $22 (weight 88%)
- Will Roblox Corporation report Above 135 billion hours engaged in fiscal 2026?: Above 135 billion — 28¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Roblox Corporation report Above 150 million daily active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 150 million — 24¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 12%)
- Will Roblox Corporation report Above 140 billion hours engaged in fiscal 2026?: Above 140 billion — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Roblox Corporation report Above 155 million daily active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 155 million — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Roblox Corporation report Above 145 billion hours engaged in fiscal 2026?: Above 145 billion — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Roblox Corporation report Above 150 billion hours engaged in fiscal 2026?: Above 150 billion — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Roblox Corporation report Above 160 million daily active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 160 million — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 4 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-10T15:20:50.828Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "37% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/rblxa
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Roblox%20Corporation%20report%20Above%20170%20million%20daily%20active%20users%20in%20fiscal%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev