94% — Will Reddit Inc. report Above 120 million daily active uniques in Q1 2026
Leader: above 128 million at 94% · Kalshi 94% · 9 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-13 06:45:07 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 9 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract asks whether Reddit will report at least 120 million daily active uniques in its Q1 2026 results. The 40% probability suggests market participants view this threshold as moderately unlikely. Reddit's user growth trajectory, monetization efforts, and competitive pressures from other social platforms drive expectations. The key uncertainty is whether Reddit's recent momentum—including AI partnership announcements and API pricing changes—has translated into sustained daily active user growth. Reddit typically reports Q1 earnings in late April or early May, with the exact reporting date and earnings release serving as the primary catalyst for resolution. The contract hinges on whether Reddit's disclosed metrics meet this specific DAU benchmark, regardless of other business performance indicators.

Key factors:
- Reddit's Q1 2026 DAU reporting date and official disclosure methodology
- Historical DAU growth rate and whether recent quarters showed acceleration or deceleration
- Impact of Reddit's API pricing changes and third-party app policies on user retention and engagement
- Competitive dynamics with TikTok, X/Twitter, and other social platforms affecting daily active user migration
- Reddit's geographic user distribution and whether growth concentrates in high or low-engagement regions

Contracts:
- Will Reddit Inc. report above 128 million daily active uniques in Q2 2026?: above 128 million — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Reddit Inc. report above 129 million daily active uniques in Q2 2026?: above 129 million — 85¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Reddit Inc. report above 130 million daily active uniques in Q2 2026?: above 130 million — 73¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Reddit Inc. report above 131 million daily active uniques in Q2 2026?: above 131 million — 61¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Reddit Inc. report Above 131.5 million daily active uniques in Q2 2026?: Above 131.5 million — 42¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Reddit Inc. report above 132 million daily active uniques in Q2 2026?: above 132 million — 24¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Reddit Inc. report above 133 million daily active uniques in Q2 2026?: above 133 million — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Reddit Inc. report above 134 million daily active uniques in Q2 2026?: above 134 million — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- ... and 1 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-13T06:20:51.377Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "94% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/rddt
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Reddit%20Inc.%20report%20Above%20120%20million%20daily%20active%20uniques%20in%20Q1%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev