94% — Will RDU’s total passenger traffic for 2026 be above 16.50 million
Leader: Above 15.50 million at 94% · Kalshi 94% · 6 contracts · $10K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-27 08:09:17 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This question asks whether RDU (Raleigh-Durham International Airport) will handle more than 16.50 million passengers across 2026. The 15% probability reflects skepticism that the airport will reach this higher threshold, though markets assign 88% odds to exceeding 15.75 million. The gap between contract prices suggests markets view 15.75–16.50 million as a tight distribution zone. Passenger traffic depends on airline capacity additions, route expansions, regional economic growth, and competitive dynamics with nearby airports. Final 2026 traffic figures typically release in early 2027, though monthly reports throughout the year provide interim signals. The primary driver remains whether carriers commit incremental flights to RDU, particularly through hub growth or new market entries that boost connecting traffic.

Key factors:
- RDU's historical annual growth rates and recent traffic trends relative to 16.50 million baseline
- Announced airline capacity expansions or route launches scheduled for 2026
- Regional economic indicators affecting business and leisure travel demand in North Carolina
- Competition from Charlotte (CLT) and Atlanta (ATL) that may divert potential RDU passengers
- Actual monthly passenger counts through mid-to-late 2026 as concrete leading indicators

Contracts:
- Will RDU’s total passenger traffic for 2026 be above 15.50 million?: Above 15.50 million — 94¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 33%)
- Will RDU’s total passenger traffic for 2026 be above 15.75 million?: Above 15.75 million — 79¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will RDU’s total passenger traffic for 2026 be above 16.00 million?: Above 16.00 million — 34¢ Kalshi $133 (weight 1%)
- Will RDU’s total passenger traffic for 2026 be above 16.25 million?: Above 16.25 million — 6¢ Kalshi $975 (weight 10%)
- Will RDU’s total passenger traffic for 2026 be above 16.50 million?: Above 16.50 million — 5¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 49%)
- Will RDU’s total passenger traffic for 2026 be above 16.75 million?: Above 16.75 million — 3¢ Kalshi $621 (weight 6%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-08-27T07:21:48.549Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "94% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/rduvisits
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20RDU%E2%80%99s%20total%20passenger%20traffic%20for%202026%20be%20above%2016.50%20million
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev