32% — Real Salt Lake vs. Inter Miami CF
Kalshi 32% · 3 contracts · $225 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 10:39:40 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the likelihood that Real Salt Lake defeats Inter Miami CF in an upcoming match. The 29% figure suggests oddsmakers view Inter Miami as favorites, likely reflecting recent form, roster strength, and home-field considerations. The probability would shift based on team performance leading up to the match, injuries to key players, and any lineup changes. The scheduled game date itself serves as the main catalyst that will resolve this uncertainty—once the match is played, the actual outcome will determine whether this probability assessment was calibrated correctly. Market activity on related player transfer contracts suggests limited recent trading interest in these specific outcomes.

Key factors:
- Real Salt Lake's win probability at 29% implies Inter Miami enters as substantial favorites with approximately 71% implied probability of not losing
- Recent team performance metrics, including goals scored, defensive record, and head-to-head historical results between these franchises would materially affect the odds
- Roster availability on match day, particularly injuries to starting players or suspended squad members, would trigger probability adjustments
- Home-field advantage or neutral venue status affects expected win probability; venue location determines baseline momentum factors
- Trading volume on these contracts remains minimal ($0 24h volume across top three related markets), suggesting limited recent market conviction or updated information flowing into price discovery

Contracts:
- Where will Neymar go next?: Inter Miami — 10¢ Kalshi $225 (weight 100%)
- Will Meredith Marks be on any episode of the Real Housewives of Salt Lake before 2027?: Meredith Marks — 81¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Where will Cristiano Ronaldo go next?: Inter Miami FC — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T10:20:51.172Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "32% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/real-salt-lake-vs-inter-miami-cf
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Real%20Salt%20Lake%20vs.%20Inter%20Miami%20CF
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev