32% — Real Salt Lake vs. Inter Miami CF - More Markets
Kalshi 32% · 3 contracts · $315 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 13:18:45 UTC

Why this matters:
This 29% probability reflects the likelihood of Real Salt Lake defeating Inter Miami CF in an upcoming match. The current level appears driven by team form, recent performance records, and head-to-head matchup dynamics between the two MLS clubs. Inter Miami's recent acquisitions and roster strength relative to Real Salt Lake's current lineup would be central to assessing whether this probability should move higher or lower. The match result itself will resolve this contract, making the actual game date the primary catalyst for clarifying whether 29% accurately captured Real Salt Lake's chances.

Key factors:
- Real Salt Lake's current league standing and win-loss record compared to Inter Miami CF's recent form
- Inter Miami's player availability and roster composition, particularly recent signings and their integration into the team
- Head-to-head historical performance between these two clubs over the past 2-3 seasons
- Home vs. away designation and venue factors, including elevation effects if the match is in Salt Lake City
- Real Salt Lake's actual match date against Inter Miami, which serves as the definitive resolution event

Contracts:
- Where will Neymar go next?: Inter Miami — 10¢ Kalshi $315 (weight 100%)
- Will Meredith Marks be on any episode of the Real Housewives of Salt Lake before 2027?: Meredith Marks — 81¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Where will Cristiano Ronaldo go next?: Inter Miami FC — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T12:20:51.372Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "32% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/real-salt-lake-vs-inter-miami-cf-more-markets
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Real%20Salt%20Lake%20vs.%20Inter%20Miami%20CF%20-%20More%20Markets
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev