81% — Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers
Kalshi 81% · 1 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 13:25:19 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects whether Real Salt Lake will defeat Portland Timbers in an upcoming match. The 33% aggregate masks a striking divergence between Kalshi's 81% estimate and Polymarket's 10% average, suggesting fundamentally different underlying assumptions or data sources between venues. The gap likely reflects uncertainty about team form, injury status, lineup composition, or even whether the referenced match has been scheduled or postponed. Key drivers would include recent performance records, head-to-head history, home/away advantage at the stadium, and whether one venue has access to more recent team information than the other. Resolution depends on the match outcome itself, though the extreme disagreement warrants investigation into whether both venues are pricing the same event or if market participants on each platform hold materially different beliefs about team capabilities.

Key factors:
- Kalshi's 81% probability vastly exceeds Polymarket's 10%, indicating either different match context (neutral vs. away venue) or one market reflecting stale information
- Recent MLS standings and win-loss records for both clubs would establish baseline win probability independent of market pricing
- The match date and venue must be confirmed; postponements or rescheduling could invalidate current market positions
- Injury or roster status of key players announced before kickoff would be the most immediate catalyst shifting probabilities
- Historical head-to-head record and performance differential in comparable recent matches provide objective benchmarks for evaluating which market price appears miscalibrated

Contracts:
- Will Meredith Marks be on any episode of the Real Housewives of Salt Lake before 2027?: Meredith Marks — 81¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T13:20:49.918Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "81% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/real-salt-lake-vs-portland-timbers
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Real%20Salt%20Lake%20vs.%20Portland%20Timbers
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev