81% — Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers - More Markets
Kalshi 81% · 1 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 13:26:38 UTC

Why this matters:
This 48% probability reflects market expectations about the outcome of a Real Salt Lake versus Portland Timbers match, though the aggregated contracts suggest uncertainty about what specific event or claim is being predicted. The 34-percentage-point gap between Kalshi (71%) and Polymarket (37%) indicates significant disagreement across venues, potentially reflecting different interpretations of the resolution criteria or limited liquidity in these markets. Movement in this probability would depend on team roster changes, injury reports, or clarification of the exact prediction being priced. The resolution likely hinges on match performance or related player transfers that would conclusively determine the outcome. Given the low trading volumes shown ($0 in recent activity), prices may reflect thin liquidity rather than robust consensus forecasting, meaning small trades could shift probabilities meaningfully.

Key factors:
- The cross-venue discrepancy of 34 percentage points suggests either different market participants, varying interpretations of resolution criteria, or liquidity constraints on one or both platforms
- No recent trading volume ($0 over 24 hours) indicates these contracts are not actively repriced, so quoted probabilities may not reflect current information
- The top contracts listed reference Cristiano Ronaldo and Meredith Marks from Real Housewives, suggesting potential confusion about the underlying prediction or misalignment between contract titles and actual outcomes
- Kalshi's 71% probability versus Polymarket's 37% reversal hints that aggregation may be combining predictions across different resolution events or claim interpretations
- The low individual contract prices (27-71 cents) and zero volume suggest minimal capital is at risk, reducing confidence in the probability as a signal of genuine market belief

Contracts:
- Will Meredith Marks be on any episode of the Real Housewives of Salt Lake before 2027?: Meredith Marks — 81¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 100%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-26T13:20:51.959Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "81% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/real-salt-lake-vs-portland-timbers-more-markets
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Real%20Salt%20Lake%20vs.%20Portland%20Timbers%20-%20More%20Markets
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev