48% — Will 0 reconciliation bills be passed in 2027
Kalshi 48% · 2 contracts · $1 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:22:01 UTC

Why this matters:
This question asks whether Congress will pass zero reconciliation bills during 2027. At 31%, the market suggests a moderate-to-low probability of this outcome. Reconciliation bills are special legislative vehicles that require only a simple majority in the Senate, making them important tools for advancing partisan priorities. The current probability reflects expectations about congressional composition and legislative priorities after the 2026 midterm elections. Factors pushing the probability higher include potential divided government or legislative gridlock; factors pushing it lower include strong incentives for the party holding Senate control to use reconciliation for tax, spending, or healthcare measures. The main resolution catalyst will be the 2026 midterm election results, which determine chamber control and legislative capacity. Throughout 2027, each month without a passed reconciliation bill increases the likelihood of the 0-passage outcome.

Key factors:
- The party composition of Congress following the November 2026 midterm elections directly determines legislative leverage and incentive to deploy reconciliation bills
- Reconciliation has been used frequently since 2017; recent precedent suggests parties in power typically attempt at least one reconciliation measure for major policy goals
- Divided government scenarios (one party controlling House, other controlling Senate) significantly reduce the likelihood of any reconciliation passage
- The incoming administration's priorities and political capital in 2027 will influence whether party leaders invest effort in reconciliation-eligible legislation
- Economic conditions and urgent legislative demands in 2027 may necessitate reconciliation bills for time-sensitive fiscal or budget measures

Contracts:
- Will 2 reconciliation bills be passed in 2027?: 2 — 23¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 100%)
- Will 1 reconciliation bills be passed in 2027?: 1 — 73¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

Cite as: "48% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/reccount
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%200%20reconciliation%20bills%20be%20passed%20in%202027
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev