95% — Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026
Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027 at 95% · Kalshi 95% · 4 contracts · $4K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 05:22:57 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the market's assessment that Congress will pass at least one reconciliation bill—a legislative tool allowing certain budget-related measures to bypass the 60-vote Senate filibuster—between now and year-end 2026. The 93% price suggests traders view passage as highly likely, primarily because Democrats currently hold Senate control and can pass reconciliation unilaterally if united. The probability would decline if Republicans gain Senate seats in the 2026 midterms or if internal Democratic disagreements prevent consensus on bill contents. The single biggest catalyst is the November 2026 midterm election, which will determine Senate composition and the legislative dynamics for the remainder of the year. If Republicans capture the Senate, passage becomes substantially less probable, whereas a Democratic gain would reinforce the current high expectation.

Key factors:
- Current Senate composition and Democratic unified control of both chambers, enabling reconciliation passage without Republican support
- The November 2026 midterm election outcome, particularly Senate seats, which will determine post-election legislative feasibility through December 31
- Historical precedent that reconciliation bills are frequently used vehicles for budget-related partisan legislation, making passage more probable than zero
- Potential intra-party disagreement among Democrats on reconciliation bill scope, timing, or contents that could delay or prevent a floor vote
- The calendar constraint—less than 8 months remain for drafting, committee passage, and full-chamber votes before year-end deadline

Contracts:
- Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 95¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 0%)
- Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026?: Before Jul 3, 2026 — 90¢ Kalshi $765 (weight 18%)
- Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026?: Before Jun 12, 2026 — 85¢ Kalshi $252 (weight 6%)
- Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026?: Before Jun 10, 2026 — 67¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 76%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:07.231Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/recnch
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20House%20pass%20a%20reconciliation%20bill%20before%20December%2031%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev