8% — Will Baltimore have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season Kalshi 8% · 9 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-23 00:59:40 UTC Why this matters: This contract reflects the likelihood that Baltimore finishes the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the best record among all 32 teams. At 6%, the market assigns Baltimore relatively low odds compared to favorites like Los Angeles and Houston, suggesting forecasters believe other teams have stronger rosters or coaching advantages. The probability depends primarily on Baltimore's offseason acquisitions, injury management, and divisional competition strength. The 2026-27 regular season (starting September 2026) will definitively resolve this contract, as final records are objective and verifiable. Baltimore's current standing reflects baseline expectations; significant free-agent signings, draft success, or quarterback performance changes could shift the probability materially in either direction. Key factors: - Baltimore's 2026 offseason roster moves, particularly at quarterback and defensive positions, relative to competitor acquisitions - The health status of key players entering the 2026-07 season, especially any prior injuries affecting offensive or defensive core contributors - Division strength within the AFC North, as divisional performance affects relative record difficulty and strength-of-schedule - Los Angeles R's current 13¢ probability indicates market confidence in an alternative favorite; Baltimore would need to outperform that baseline competitor - Historical playoff seeding and performance trends for Baltimore under current coaching regime versus other contenders Contracts: - Will Buffalo have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?: Buffalo — 16¢ Kalshi $776 (weight 33%) - Will Chicago have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?: Chicago — 4¢ Kalshi $445 (weight 19%) - Will San Francisco have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?: San Francisco — 8¢ Kalshi $396 (weight 17%) - Will Kansas City have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?: Kansas City — 6¢ Kalshi $235 (weight 10%) - Will Los Angeles R have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?: Los Angeles R — 7¢ Kalshi $217 (weight 9%) - Will Cincinnati have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?: Cincinnati — 7¢ Kalshi $112 (weight 5%) - Will Seattle have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?: Seattle — 7¢ Kalshi $76 (weight 3%) - Will Philadelphia have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?: Philadelphia — 6¢ Kalshi $74 (weight 3%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-23T00:20:49.470Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "8% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/recordnflbest Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Baltimore%20have%20the%20best%20regular%20season%20record%20in%20the%202026-27%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev