7% — Will Baltimore have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season Kalshi 7% · 10 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-27 08:02:33 UTC Why this matters: This probability represents the likelihood that the Baltimore Orioles will finish the 2026-27 MLB regular season with the best record in baseball. At 6%, the market reflects skepticism about Baltimore achieving this outcome, suggesting traders view other franchises as more competitive. The assessment likely weighs Baltimore's recent performance trajectory, roster composition, and competitive positioning within the American League East. Key factors driving the current probability include the strength of competing teams—particularly the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees, who show higher implied probabilities—and Baltimore's historical consistency relative to division rivals. The main resolution point will be the conclusion of the 2026-27 regular season schedule, when final win-loss records determine the outcome. Market movements could shift substantially based on upcoming offseason transactions, spring training performance, and early-season results that signal roster strength and coaching effectiveness. Key factors: - Baltimore's implied win probability (6%) significantly lags Los Angeles (29%) and New York (14%), indicating the market perceives Baltimore as the third-strongest challenger in the AL East - Historical regular season performance of Baltimore versus AL East rivals and other MLB teams establishes baseline expectations for record quality - Offseason roster moves, free agent acquisitions, and trades completed before the 2026-27 season will directly affect competitive position and win projections - Early-season performance through the first month will provide empirical data to validate or contradict preseason expectations about team strength - Injury status of key position players, pitchers, and management changes heading into the season represent concrete variables affecting win totals Contracts: - Will Cincinnati have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?: Cincinnati — 5¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 86%) - Will Buffalo have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?: Buffalo — 6¢ Kalshi $247 (weight 8%) - Will Detroit have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?: Detroit — 9¢ Kalshi $198 (weight 6%) - Will Baltimore have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?: Baltimore — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Denver have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?: Denver — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Green Bay have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?: Green Bay — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Houston have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?: Houston — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Kansas City have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?: Kansas City — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-27T07:20:50.954Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "7% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/recordnflbest Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Baltimore%20have%20the%20best%20regular%20season%20record%20in%20the%202026-27%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev