10% — Will Arizona have the worst regular season record in the 2026-27 season Kalshi 10% · 8 contracts · $4K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 15:23:21 UTC Why this matters: This market estimates a 14% chance that Arizona finishes the 2026-27 baseball season with the worst record in the league. The probability reflects expectations about Arizona's roster strength, management decisions, and competitive positioning relative to other potentially weak teams. Key drivers include whether Arizona actively rebuilds or attempts competitiveness, how their drafted prospects develop, and injuries to core players. The 2026-27 season will run from late March through September 2027, with the final standings determined after all regular season games conclude. Arizona's actual performance will depend on offseason acquisitions, player health, and how their pitching staff performs relative to other struggling teams in the league. Comparative probabilities show St. Louis and New York M currently face lower odds of worst-record finishes, suggesting Arizona is viewed as moderately vulnerable but not the consensus weakest team. Key factors: - Arizona's offseason roster moves and payroll commitments relative to rebuilding teams - Injury status of Arizona's key position players and starting pitchers heading into spring training 2027 - Performance trajectory of Arizona's minor league prospects and whether they're ready for MLB contributions - Quality of Arizona's managerial and front office decision-making compared to other potentially weak franchises - Trade activity at the 2026 deadline—whether Arizona sells veterans or attempts mid-season competitiveness Contracts: - Will Miami have the worst regular season record in the 2026-27 season?: Miami — 15¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 53%) - Will Cleveland have the worst regular season record in the 2026-27 season?: Cleveland — 7¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 30%) - Will Atlanta have the worst regular season record in the 2026-27 season?: Atlanta — 3¢ Kalshi $468 (weight 13%) - Will New York J have the worst regular season record in the 2026-27 season?: New York J — 19¢ Kalshi $68 (weight 2%) - Will Tennessee have the worst regular season record in the 2026-27 season?: Tennessee — 6¢ Kalshi $67 (weight 2%) - Will Arizona have the worst regular season record in the 2026-27 season?: Arizona — 23¢ Kalshi $12 (weight 0%) - Will Dallas have the worst regular season record in the 2026-27 season?: Dallas — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Las Vegas have the worst regular season record in the 2026-27 season?: Las Vegas — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T15:20:49.733Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "10% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/recordnflworst Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Arizona%20have%20the%20worst%20regular%20season%20record%20in%20the%202026-27%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev