14% — Will Arizona have the worst regular season record in the 2026-27 season
Kalshi 14% · 4 contracts · $442 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:21:07 UTC

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 14% chance that Arizona finishes the 2026-27 baseball season with the worst record in the league. The probability reflects expectations about Arizona's roster strength, management decisions, and competitive positioning relative to other potentially weak teams. Key drivers include whether Arizona actively rebuilds or attempts competitiveness, how their drafted prospects develop, and injuries to core players. The 2026-27 season will run from late March through September 2027, with the final standings determined after all regular season games conclude. Arizona's actual performance will depend on offseason acquisitions, player health, and how their pitching staff performs relative to other struggling teams in the league. Comparative probabilities show St. Louis and New York M currently face lower odds of worst-record finishes, suggesting Arizona is viewed as moderately vulnerable but not the consensus weakest team.

Key factors:
- Arizona's offseason roster moves and payroll commitments relative to rebuilding teams
- Injury status of Arizona's key position players and starting pitchers heading into spring training 2027
- Performance trajectory of Arizona's minor league prospects and whether they're ready for MLB contributions
- Quality of Arizona's managerial and front office decision-making compared to other potentially weak franchises
- Trade activity at the 2026 deadline—whether Arizona sells veterans or attempts mid-season competitiveness

Contracts:
- Will Miami have the worst regular season record in the 2026-27 season?: Miami — 22¢ Kalshi $264 (weight 60%)
- Will Arizona have the worst regular season record in the 2026-27 season?: Arizona — 20¢ Kalshi $107 (weight 24%)
- Will Las Vegas have the worst regular season record in the 2026-27 season?: Las Vegas — 6¢ Kalshi $72 (weight 16%)
- Will Cleveland have the worst regular season record in the 2026-27 season?: Cleveland — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

Cite as: "14% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/recordnflworst
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Arizona%20have%20the%20worst%20regular%20season%20record%20in%20the%202026-27%20season
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev