94% — Will Red Bull Point of Sale Growth for August 2026 be above -10%
Leader: Above -10% at 94% · Kalshi 94% · 4 contracts · $310 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-27 10:55:35 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets are pricing a 93% probability that Red Bull's point-of-sale growth for August 2026 will remain above -10%, meaning sales are unlikely to fall by more than 10% year-over-year. The high confidence reflects expectations that Red Bull will experience modest declines at worst rather than severe contraction. Contract pricing shows traders see a meaningful distinction between the -10% threshold (93% likely) and -6% (89% likely), suggesting the central outlook clusters around -8% to -7% decline. The main drivers are competitive energy drink pricing pressure, consumer spending patterns in August, and broader beverage category trends. Resolution will depend on Red Bull's official point-of-sale data release for August, typically reported within weeks of month-end. The tight clustering of probabilities across thresholds indicates limited conviction about whether declines will be shallow or moderate.

Key factors:
- Contract pricing spreads (-10% at 95¢ versus -2% at 56¢) imply traders expect August decline between -5% and -8%, not collapse or growth
- Zero 24-hour trading volume on the -10%, -6%, and +2% contracts suggests the market view has stabilized with minimal recent conviction shifts
- August seasonality and consumer spending patterns will drive whether Red Bull's year-over-year comparison falls within normal variance or signals deeper demand issues
- Resolution depends on official point-of-sale data release; timing and granularity of that disclosure will determine settlement certainty
- The 4-percentage-point gap between -10% (93%) and -6% (89%) thresholds shows material uncertainty about whether weakness stays shallow or accelerates

Contracts:
- Will Red Bull Point of Sale Growth for August 2026 be above -10%?: Above -10% — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Red Bull Point of Sale Growth for August 2026 be above -6%?: Above -6% — 93¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Red Bull Point of Sale Growth for August 2026 be above -2%?: Above -2% — 88¢ Kalshi $105 (weight 34%)
- Will Red Bull Point of Sale Growth for August 2026 be above 2%?: Above 2% — 49¢ Kalshi $205 (weight 66%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-27T09:20:49.371Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "94% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/redbullpos
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Red%20Bull%20Point%20of%20Sale%20Growth%20for%20August%202026%20be%20above%20-10%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev