97% — What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections Leader: Ohio at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 12 contracts · $8K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-11 11:12:00 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 12 outcomes. Why this matters: Markets are pricing a 96% probability that Missouri will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections, with Texas and Florida also showing high probabilities (96% and 94% respectively). Congressional redistricting typically occurs after decennial censuses, but special circumstances can trigger mid-decade changes—primarily when courts order them due to constitutional violations or when state legislatures voluntarily pursue them for political advantage. The high probability reflects expectations that at least one of these states will undergo redistricting before November 2026. Key drivers include recent court decisions on existing maps, litigation timelines, and legislative willingness to act. Resolution depends on whether any redistricting plan is officially adopted and implemented by Election Day 2026, which would determine which contracts settle affirmatively versus void. Key factors: - Missouri has faced ongoing litigation over congressional maps; recent court rulings or settlement agreements would indicate redistricting likelihood - Texas and Florida show nearly identical high probabilities, suggesting market belief that at least one major state will redistrict rather than each individually having 96% odds - The 18-contract structure means exactly one state's outcome will be selected; if multiple states actually redistrict, only the designated winner settles - Upcoming state legislative sessions or court decision dates in 2026 would provide concrete catalysts that could shift these probabilities significantly - Historical pattern: mid-decade redistricting remains uncommon; most occur following census reapportionment in years ending in '01 Contracts: - What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: Ohio — 97¢ Kalshi $587 (weight 7%) - What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: Florida — 97¢ Kalshi $250 (weight 3%) - What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: California — 97¢ Kalshi $20 (weight 0%) - What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: Texas — 97¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%) - What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: Louisiana — 95¢ Kalshi $57 (weight 1%) - What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: North Carolina — 94¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 83%) - What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: Missouri — 93¢ Kalshi $88 (weight 1%) - What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: Alabama — 86¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 4 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-11T10:20:49.109Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/redistricting Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20states%20will%20redistrict%20before%20the%202026%20Congressional%20elections Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev