94% — What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections
Leader: California at 94% · Kalshi 94% · 18 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 09:55:12 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 18 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability estimates whether at least one state will conduct congressional redistricting before the November 2026 elections. At 96%, markets suggest redistricting is highly likely to occur. The main drivers are pending court decisions on existing redistricting plans and state legislative actions challenging current maps on partisan or racial grounds. Texas leads the contracts, suggesting it's viewed as the most probable state to redistrict. Key upcoming catalysts include federal court rulings on Section 5 challenges, state supreme court decisions on map constitutionality throughout 2026, and any legislative sessions scheduled to address redistricting disputes. The probability would decline if courts uphold existing maps or if states exhaust legal remedies without ordering new maps.

Key factors:
- Texas redistricting contract pricing at 96% reflects either an expected court-ordered redraw or anticipated legislative action before November 2026
- South Carolina (71¢) and Alabama (64¢) show moderate-to-high probabilities, suggesting active litigation or legislative pressure in these states
- Virginia contract at 58¢ indicates one specific state with meaningful redistricting likelihood, potentially from pending legal challenges
- Federal appellate decisions and state supreme court rulings on map constitutionality throughout spring-summer 2026 will directly determine resolution
- The 18-contract structure creates a winner-take-all payout, meaning the probability reflects markets assessing whether at least one state will redistrict, not the number of states

Contracts:
- What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: California — 94¢ Kalshi $20 (weight 1%)
- What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: Texas — 94¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 0%)
- What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: North Carolina — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: Florida — 91¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 74%)
- What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: Louisiana — 91¢ Kalshi $159 (weight 7%)
- What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: Missouri — 80¢ Kalshi $298 (weight 14%)
- What states will redistrict before the 2028 Congressional elections?: Colorado — 69¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- What states will redistrict before the 2028 Congressional elections?: New York — 67¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 10 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T09:20:19.882Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "94% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/redistricting
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20states%20will%20redistrict%20before%20the%202026%20Congressional%20elections
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev