64% — Relay FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $900M
Leader: $100M at 64% · Polymarket 64% · 10 contracts · $96 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:23:00 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 10 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market assesses the probability that Relay will have a fully diluted valuation above $900 million one day after its launch. The 58% probability reflects moderately bullish positioning, suggesting traders see this as more likely than not but with meaningful downside risk. The valuation hinges on Relay's initial token pricing, market demand at launch, and broader crypto market conditions on launch day. The outcome will be determined immediately once the token begins trading and price discovery occurs. Related projects show mixed expectations: similar-tier projects are priced for $500-800M valuations by traders, while less mature projects target lower thresholds, suggesting uncertainty about where Relay specifically will land. Market movement will largely depend on launch timing announcement and pre-launch momentum.

Key factors:
- Relay's token launch date and pre-launch marketing intensity will directly influence initial trading volume and price discovery speed
- Comparable project valuations on Polymarket ($500M-$800M thresholds showing 17-44% implied probability) suggest $900M represents an above-consensus outcome
- Broader crypto market sentiment on launch day significantly impacts token valuations; Bitcoin and Ethereum volatility will create conditions either supporting or constraining upside
- The $900M threshold sits above the mode of related project expectations but below the $1B+ targets some traders price at 17% probability, indicating genuine disagreement on execution quality

Contracts:
- Relay FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $100M — 64¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Relay FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $300M — 48¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Relay FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $600M — 35¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Relay FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $500M — 33¢ Polymarket $50 (weight 52%)
- Relay FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $900M — 27¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Relay FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $800M — 26¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Relay FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $700M — 20¢ Polymarket $47 (weight 48%)
- Relay FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $1B — 14¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 2 more

Cite as: "64% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/relay-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Relay%20FDV%20above%20___%20one%20day%20after%20launch%3F%3A%20%24900M
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev