60% — Will the Chicago Pro Football Team relocate to a new location in Illinois by the first game of the 2028 Pro Football regular season
Leader: A new location in Illinois at 60% · Kalshi 60% · 3 contracts · $7K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 10:35:59 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 74% probability that the Chicago professional football team will relocate to another Illinois location before the 2028 season begins. The high probability reflects either significant reported movement toward relocation, announced plans, or stated intentions by team ownership or municipal officials. The market would shift downward if relocation discussions stall, new stadium deals are finalized in Chicago, or ownership signals commitment to remaining. Key catalysts include any formal relocation announcement, completion of stadium financing negotiations, or municipal zoning and development approvals. The relatively modest trading volume suggests limited market participation, which typically indicates either low mainstream attention or concentrated positions among specialized traders following this specific outcome.

Key factors:
- Public statements or formal announcements from team ownership regarding relocation timelines and target locations
- Status of current stadium lease agreements and any renegotiation outcomes in Chicago proper
- Municipal and state government approvals or zoning changes enabling stadium development at potential alternate Illinois sites
- Financing announcements for stadium construction or acquisition at candidate relocation sites
- NFL approval requirements and timeline for any proposed team relocation within league governance

Contracts:
- Will the Chicago Pro Football Team relocate to a new location in Illinois by the first game of the 2028 Pro Football regular season?: A new location in Illinois — 60¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 50%)
- Will the Chicago Pro Football Team relocate to Indiana by the first game of the 2028 Pro Football regular season?: Indiana — 31¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 36%)
- Will the Chicago Pro Football Team not relocate/announce a relocation by the first game of the 2028 Pro Football regular season?: Do not relocate or announce a relocation — 5¢ Kalshi $995 (weight 14%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T10:20:49.918Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "60% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/relocationchi
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Chicago%20Pro%20Football%20Team%20relocate%20to%20a%20new%20location%20in%20Illinois%20by%20the%20first%20game%20of%20the%202028%20Pro%20Football%20regular%20season
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev