55% — Will the Chicago Pro Football Team relocate to a new location in Illinois by the first game of the 2028 Pro Football regular season
Leader: A new location in Illinois at 55% · Kalshi 55% · 3 contracts · $585 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-22 00:23:58 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects traders' assessment that the Chicago pro football team will relocate somewhere within Illinois rather than to Indiana or remain in its current location by the 2028 season opener. The 51% probability indicates substantial uncertainty, with relocation to Indiana at 35% and no-move scenarios accounting for the remainder. The main drivers are ongoing stadium negotiations, local and state funding commitments, and NFL ownership decisions. A critical catalyst would be any official announcement from team ownership, the NFL, or Illinois/Chicago officials regarding stadium plans or relocation intent. Trading volume on the Illinois contract ($84 in 24-hour volume) remains modest, suggesting limited recent news flow. The outcome hinges on whether funding gaps push the team toward new Illinois locations or whether Indiana incentives prove more attractive than staying put.

Key factors:
- Current stadium lease terms and renovation feasibility—whether Soldier Field upgrades are pursued or deemed insufficient
- Illinois and Chicago political commitment to funding mechanisms for a new stadium or renovated facility within the state
- Competitive offer structure from Indiana versus the cost and complexity of relocation within Illinois geography and market
- NFL ownership stance and timeline for requiring stadium resolution, typically tied to capital expenditure deadlines or lease expiration
- Real estate availability and zoning approval pace for potential new stadium sites within Illinois metropolitan areas

Contracts:
- Will the Chicago Pro Football Team relocate to a new location in Illinois by the first game of the 2028 Pro Football regular season?: A new location in Illinois — 55¢ Kalshi $123 (weight 21%)
- Will the Chicago Pro Football Team relocate to Indiana by the first game of the 2028 Pro Football regular season?: Indiana — 32¢ Kalshi $386 (weight 66%)
- Will the Chicago Pro Football Team not relocate/announce a relocation by the first game of the 2028 Pro Football regular season?: Do not relocate or announce a relocation — 5¢ Kalshi $76 (weight 13%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-21T23:21:01.785Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "55% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/relocationchi
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Chicago%20Pro%20Football%20Team%20relocate%20to%20a%20new%20location%20in%20Illinois%20by%20the%20first%20game%20of%20the%202028%20Pro%20Football%20regular%20season
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev