46% — Will RFK Jr. be confirmed as HHS Secretary?
Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027 at 46% · Kalshi 46% · 2 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 10:36:01 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
There is no live data on the status of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as an HHS Secretary nominee, as available prediction markets currently only track the potential confirmation of the first announced Labor Secretary. Market participants place a 60% probability on the Labor Secretary being confirmed before 2027, with those same markets viewing an immediate confirmation by July 2026 as unlikely at 4%.

Key factors:
- No HHS secretary market data
- Labor Secretary confirmation probability
- 60% chance for Labor Secretary by 2027
- Low near-term confirmation odds

Contracts:
- Will Trump's first announced Labor Secretary pick be confirmed as Secretary of Labor before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 46¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 50%)
- Will Trump's first announced Labor Secretary pick be confirmed as Secretary of Labor before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026 — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 50%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T10:20:50.185Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "46% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/rfk-hhs
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20RFK%20Jr.%20be%20confirmed%20as%20HHS%20Secretary%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev