40% — What will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. say during Health Subcommittee
Kalshi 40% · 3 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 07:44:17 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the market's estimate that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will make a specific statement during an upcoming Health Subcommittee hearing. The current 38% level sits between two distinct viewpoints: Kalshi contracts averaging 45% suggest moderate confidence in the event occurring, while Polymarket contracts at 29% reflect greater skepticism. The divergence may reflect uncertainty about which specific statement qualifies, timing of the hearing, or RFK Jr.'s participation. The primary driver is whether a scheduled Health Subcommittee hearing occurs and whether RFK Jr. appears and speaks on expected topics related to his HHS role. Resolution depends on the hearing date and what constitutes a qualifying statement—factors that create the 16-percentage-point spread between venues.

Key factors:
- Scheduled date and confirmed participation of RFK Jr. in a Health Subcommittee hearing
- Definition of what constitutes a qualifying statement during testimony
- Volume differential between venues ($17,936 on Kalshi vs. $339 on Polymarket suggests unequal liquidity and potentially different market compositions
- Related contract pricing on RFK Jr.'s tenure at HHS (55¢ on Kalshi) may indicate underlying concerns about his continued role
- Absence of recent trading activity on some related contracts ($0 volume) suggests potential information gaps or low trader interest

Contracts:
- Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leaves HHS Secretary in before 2027?: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — 43¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 100%)
- Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. attend any White House press briefing which takes place in the James S. Brady Press Briefing Room?: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — 57¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T07:20:18.457Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "40% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/rfkmention
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20Robert%20F.%20Kennedy%20Jr.%20say%20during%20Health%20Subcommittee
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev