22% — Will the Republican Party win 193 seats in the 120th Congress Leader: Below 193 at 22% · Kalshi 22% · 10 contracts · $4K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 00:17:04 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 10 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability indicates a 31% chance Republicans will win exactly 193 seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The outcome depends on swing district dynamics and overall national sentiment toward the party in power. Current market pricing suggests the most likely outcome clusters elsewhere—markets show higher odds for Republicans winning the House overall (19¢) but at different seat counts, indicating uncertainty about the final distribution. The November 2026 election will provide the definitive result. Key drivers include economic conditions heading into the midterms, approval ratings, and turnout patterns in competitive districts. The closest comparison on these markets shows the 223-227 seat range trading at lower odds, suggesting markets view 193 seats as a relatively underwhelming outcome for Republicans compared to historical norms for opposition parties in midterms. Key factors: - The overall Republican House win probability (19¢) is higher than this specific 193-seat outcome, indicating markets expect larger Republican gains if they win control - The 223-227 seat contract trades significantly lower (3¢), suggesting markets view 193 as a below-expected seat count compared to other possible Republican outcomes - Historical midterm patterns show the party opposing the sitting president often gains 20-40+ House seats, making 193 a relatively modest gain depending on the starting baseline - This probability depends heavily on swing district performance in 2026, which remains sensitive to economic data, legislative accomplishments, and approval metrics - Current Republican Senate odds at 50¢ indicate separate uncertainty about upper chamber performance, suggesting House outcomes are driven by distinct regional factors Contracts: - Will the Republican Party win 193 seats in the 120th Congress?: Below 193 — 22¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 28%) - Will the Republican Party win 198-202 seats in the 120th Congress?: 198-202 — 13¢ Kalshi $47 (weight 1%) - Will the Republican Party win 203-207 seats in the 120th Congress?: 203-207 — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the Republican Party win 193-197 seats in the 120th Congress?: 193-197 — 10¢ Kalshi $200 (weight 6%) - Will the Republican Party win 208-212 seats in the 120th Congress?: 208-212 — 9¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 50%) - Will the Republican Party win 218-222 seats in the 120th Congress?: 218-222 — 8¢ Kalshi $242 (weight 7%) - Will the Republican Party win 223-227 seats in the 120th Congress?: 223-227 — 7¢ Kalshi $228 (weight 6%) - Will the Republican Party win 213-217 seats in the 120th Congress?: 213-217 — 7¢ Kalshi $47 (weight 1%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-25T23:20:49.055Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "22% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/rhouseseats Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Republican%20Party%20win%20193%20seats%20%20in%20the%20120th%20Congress Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev