94% — Will Rhode Island’s average residential electricity price for 2026 be above 30.0¢/kWh Leader: Above 28.0¢/kWh at 94% · Kalshi 94% · 7 contracts · $4K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-24 15:13:05 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes. Why this matters: Markets estimate an 81% chance that Rhode Island's average residential electricity price will exceed 28.5¢/kWh for 2026, with successively lower probabilities for higher price thresholds (22% for above 30¢/kWh). This reflects expectations about regional power supply costs, grid infrastructure investments, and fuel market dynamics. The probability distribution suggests most traders expect prices in the 28.5–30¢/kWh range rather than extreme highs or lows. Key drivers include natural gas prices, renewable energy deployment rates in New England, and regulatory decisions affecting utility rates. The 2026 year-end electricity rate data release—typically available in early 2027—will definitively resolve these contracts. Current market confidence in prices staying above 28.5¢/kWh but below 30.5¢/kWh indicates traders view near-term supply-demand fundamentals as relatively tight but not severely constrained. Key factors: - Natural gas pricing: Regional wholesale power costs are heavily influenced by Henry Hub futures and LNG export dynamics; a sustained drop in gas prices could push Rhode Island rates below consensus forecasts - New England renewable capacity additions: Solar and offshore wind installations scheduled for 2025–2026 affect net electricity demand and marginal pricing; construction delays or accelerations would shift rate trajectories - Federal and state rate-setting decisions: Public Utilities Commission rulings on rate cases and cost-of-service recovery directly determine residential bills; regulatory changes could add or subtract several cents per kWh - Historical baseline: Rhode Island's 2024–2025 residential rates provide context; rates have averaged in the mid-to-high 20¢/kWh range, making 28.5¢ a modest increase rather than an anomaly - Seasonal and weather volatility: Demand spikes during winter and summer peak periods influence annual averages; an unusually cold 2026 winter would pressure prices upward Contracts: - Will Rhode Island’s average residential electricity price for 2026 be above 28.0¢/kWh?: Above 28.0¢/kWh — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Rhode Island’s average residential electricity price for 2026 be above 28.5¢/kWh?: Above 28.5¢/kWh — 92¢ Kalshi $482 (weight 11%) - Will Rhode Island’s average residential electricity price for 2026 be above 29.0¢/kWh?: Above 29.0¢/kWh — 83¢ Kalshi $658 (weight 15%) - Will Rhode Island’s average residential electricity price for 2026 be above 29.5¢/kWh?: Above 29.5¢/kWh — 62¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 64%) - Will Rhode Island’s average residential electricity price for 2026 be above 30.0¢/kWh?: Above 30.0¢/kWh — 37¢ Kalshi $422 (weight 10%) - Will Rhode Island’s average residential electricity price for 2026 be above 30.5¢/kWh?: Above 30.5¢/kWh — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Rhode Island’s average residential electricity price for 2026 be above 31.0¢/kWh?: Above 31.0¢/kWh — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-24T13:20:50.713Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "94% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/rirespower Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Rhode%20Island%E2%80%99s%20average%20residential%20electricity%20price%20for%202026%20be%20above%2030.0%C2%A2%2FkWh Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev