45% — Will Vitality win the Wildcard vs. Vitality Rocket League match
Kalshi 45% · 4 contracts · $726 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-25 00:00:44 UTC

Contracts:
- Will Karmine Corp win the Gentle Mates Alpine vs. Karmine Corp Rocket League match?: Karmine Corp — 35¢ Kalshi $487 (weight 67%)
- Will Shopify Rebellion win the Shopify Rebellion vs. Manchester City Esports Rocket League match?: Shopify Rebellion — 53¢ Kalshi $110 (weight 15%)
- Will Manchester City Esports win the Shopify Rebellion vs. Manchester City Esports Rocket League match?: Manchester City Esports — 36¢ Kalshi $96 (weight 13%)
- Will Gentle Mates Alpine win the Gentle Mates Alpine vs. Karmine Corp Rocket League match?: Gentle Mates Alpine — 54¢ Kalshi $34 (weight 5%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-23T13:20:18.502Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "45% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/rlgame
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Vitality%20win%20the%20Wildcard%20vs.%20Vitality%20Rocket%20League%20match
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev