94% — Will the Republican National Committee's cash on hand be above 115000000 as of June 30, 2026 Leader: Above 115 million at 94% · Kalshi 94% · 7 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-25 23:42:52 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes. Why this matters: This question measures the likelihood that the Republican National Committee will report cash on hand exceeding $115 million as of June 30, 2026. The 13% probability reflects market expectations that the RNC's available funds will fall below this threshold. RNC cash positions fluctuate based on fundraising cycles, spending on campaign infrastructure, and transfers to allied groups. The outcome will be determined by official FEC filings showing the RNC's June 30, 2026 cash-on-hand figure, typically released in early July. Current market pricing suggests traders expect the RNC to hold between $100-115 million by that date, with substantially lower probabilities assigned to higher thresholds ($120M, $125M+). Recent fundraising trends and scheduled spending plans leading into the general election will materially influence the final figure. Key factors: - RNC's June 30, 2026 cash-on-hand figure will be disclosed in FEC filings released in early July 2026, making this objectively verifiable - The $115 million threshold sits between the lower ($100-115M) and higher ($120M+) outcomes priced in the market, suggesting baseline expectations near this level - RNC spending patterns through mid-2026 on infrastructure, advertising, and field operations will directly reduce available cash from earlier fundraising - Fundraising momentum and donor contributions between now and June 30 will add to or deplete available cash reserves - The RNC's historical cash-on-hand levels and typical end-of-quarter positions provide context for whether $115M represents above or below average liquidity Contracts: - Will the Republican National Committee's cash on hand be above 115000000 as of June 30, 2026?: Above 115 million — 94¢ Kalshi $867 (weight 36%) - Will the Republican National Committee's cash on hand be above 120000000 as of June 30, 2026?: Above 120 million — 93¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the Republican National Committee's cash on hand be above 125000000 as of June 30, 2026?: Above 125 million — 87¢ Kalshi $194 (weight 8%) - Will the Republican National Committee's cash on hand be above 130000000 as of June 30, 2026?: Above 130 million — 44¢ Kalshi $110 (weight 5%) - Will the Republican National Committee's cash on hand be above 135000000 as of June 30, 2026?: Above 135 million — 11¢ Kalshi $58 (weight 2%) - Will the Republican National Committee's cash on hand be above 140000000 as of June 30, 2026?: Above 140 million — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the Republican National Committee's cash on hand be above 145000000 as of June 30, 2026?: Above 145 million — 3¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 49%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-25T23:20:49.739Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "94% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/rnccash Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Republican%20National%20Committee's%20cash%20on%20hand%20be%20above%20115000000%20as%20of%20June%2030%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev