63% — Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act becomes law without Donald Trump’s signature before Jul 14, 2026 Leader: Becomes law without signature at 63% · Kalshi 63% · 3 contracts · $9K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-09 21:51:29 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes. Why this matters: The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act has a 73% probability of becoming law without Donald Trump's signature before July 14, 2026. This outcome occurs when Congress passes legislation with enough votes to override a presidential veto or when the bill becomes law through a pocket veto process. The high probability reflects market expectations that either the bill will pass with veto-proof majorities in both chambers, or Trump will not actively oppose it. The outcome will be resolved by July 14, 2026, when Congress's legislative calendar and Trump's actions will be finalized. Key uncertainties include whether the bill reaches Trump's desk before the deadline, the margin of support in Congress, and Trump's decision to sign, veto, or allow the bill to become law without action. Key factors: - Congressional vote counts and whether either chamber commands the two-thirds majority required to override a presidential veto - Trump's stated position on housing policy and whether he signals intent to sign or veto the legislation - The bill's progress through committee and floor votes, determining whether it reaches Trump's desk before July 14, 2026 - Market pricing across the three contract outcomes (signed at 19¢, vetoed at 3¢, becomes law without signature at 73¢) indicating strong consensus on the no-signature scenario - Historical patterns of housing legislation passing with bipartisan support versus Trump's previous veto behavior on comparable bills Contracts: - Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act becomes law without Donald Trump’s signature before Jul 14, 2026?: Becomes law without signature — 63¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 53%) - Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Donald Trump vetoes the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act before Jul 14, 2026?: Vetoed — 21¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 14%) - Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Donald Trump signs the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act into law before Jul 14, 2026?: Signed — 16¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 32%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-09T21:20:48.758Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "63% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/roadoutcome Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20it%20be%20reported%20by%20any%20of%20the%20Source%20Agencies%20that%20the%2021st%20Century%20ROAD%20to%20Housing%20Act%20becomes%20law%20without%20Donald%20Trump%E2%80%99s%20signature%20before%20Jul%2014%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev