8% — Will Gentle Mates win Rocket League Major Paris
Kalshi 8% · 10 contracts · $154 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:18 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the chance that Paris Gentle Mates will win the entire Rocket League Major Paris tournament. At 9%, the market views them as an unlikely champion despite showing strength in individual matchups. The low probability reflects uncertainty about their performance against top-tier competition across multiple matches required to win a major tournament. The main driver of this valuation appears to be the relative strength of other competitors like Vitality, combined with the difference between winning single matches (where Gentle Mates shows ~50-85% odds in some contract pairs) versus sustaining that performance through an entire tournament bracket. The tournament results themselves will serve as the primary catalyst, determining whether Gentle Mates advance through their bracket or are eliminated.

Key factors:
- Paris Gentle Mates' single-match win probability ranges from 53-85% against certain opponents, but tournament victory requires winning multiple consecutive matches
- Boston Breach is priced significantly lower than Gentle Mates in their head-to-head matchup (13¢ vs 85¢), suggesting market confidence in Gentle Mates for that specific contest
- Vitality is priced at 16¢ to win the entire tournament, indicating other competitors are viewed as stronger championship contenders
- The 9% market probability for Gentle Mates to win the major suggests aggregate expectations of competitive elimination before the finals
- Trading volume varies significantly across contracts (highest at $1165 for Breach vs Mates, lowest at $103 for Vitality), indicating different confidence levels in various matchup assessments

Contracts:
- Will NRG Esports win Rocket League Major Paris?: NRG Esports — 17¢ Kalshi $83 (weight 54%)
- Will Vitality win Rocket League Major Paris?: Vitality — 14¢ Kalshi $37 (weight 24%)
- Will FURIA Esports win Rocket League Major Paris?: FURIA Esports — 3¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 7%)
- Will Karmine Corp win Rocket League Major Paris?: Karmine Corp — 5¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 7%)
- Will Gentle Mates win Rocket League Major Paris?: Gentle Mates — 11¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 5%)
- Will Twisted Minds win Rocket League Major Paris?: Twisted Minds — 8¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 4%)
- Will Ninjas in Pyjamas win Rocket League Major Paris?: Ninjas in Pyjamas — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Man City Esports win Rocket League Major Paris?: Man City Esports — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 2 more

Cite as: "8% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/rocketleague
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Gentle%20Mates%20win%20Rocket%20League%20Major%20Paris
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev