15% — Will Tulsi Gabbard go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027 Kalshi 15% · 19 contracts · $55 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 09:42:36 UTC Why this matters: This contract estimates a 20% chance that Tulsi Gabbard will appear on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast before the end of 2026. The probability reflects her current role as Director of National Intelligence and her public profile, balanced against the relatively low baseline rate of cabinet members appearing on the show. Market activity suggests traders are pricing in some uncertainty about her tenure duration—related contracts show elevated probability that she could announce her departure before summer 2026. Her appearance would depend on scheduling decisions made by both her office and the podcast, which are not predictable from public information. The main factors are whether she remains in office through year-end, her willingness to do media appearances while serving in intelligence roles, and the logistics of coordinating with Rogan's production schedule. The resolution will be definitive only after December 31, 2026. Key factors: - Gabbard's tenure duration matters significantly: related markets price a 30-44% chance she departs before July 2026, which would affect both her ability and incentive to appear - Cabinet-level intelligence officials rarely appear on unstructured podcasts due to operational security protocols and communications restrictions - Rogan's guest list has included political figures and administration officials, but appearance rates are irregular and difficult to forecast - Gabbard's prior media engagement patterns as a congresswoman and candidate could inform but don't guarantee future behavior in a sensitive intelligence role - The 7-month window provides multiple scheduling opportunities, but no scheduled events or announcements currently indicate imminent appearance likelihood Contracts: - Will Clavicular go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Clavicular — 13¢ Kalshi $55 (weight 100%) - Will Hunter Biden go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Hunter Biden — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Alex Jones go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Alex Jones — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Bill Ackman go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Bill Ackman — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Bernie Sanders go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Bernie Sanders — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Barack Obama go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Barack Obama — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Donald Trump go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Donald Trump — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Drake go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Drake — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 11 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:50.485Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "15% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/roganguest Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Tulsi%20Gabbard%20go%20on%20the%20Joe%20Rogan%20Experience%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202027 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev