15% — Will Tulsi Gabbard go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027
Kalshi 15% · 17 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-27 02:54:01 UTC

Why this matters:
This contract asks whether Tulsi Gabbard will appear on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast before the end of 2026, with current odds suggesting a 16% probability. The relatively low probability reflects both the limited time remaining (about five months) and the uncertain willingness of either party to schedule an appearance. Key factors include Gabbard's current role and public schedule, her historical relationship with the podcast, Rogan's guest selection patterns, and any scheduling conflicts. The probability could shift significantly if either Gabbard or Rogan publicly indicates interest in a conversation, or if a major news event increases demand for such an appearance. With only half a year remaining, time becomes an increasingly constraining factor as the January 1, 2027 resolution date approaches.

Key factors:
- Tulsi Gabbard's current government or political role and public availability to commit to a lengthy podcast appearance
- The frequency of new Joe Rogan Experience episodes released and his typical guest booking patterns in recent months
- Any public statements from either Gabbard or Rogan's team indicating interest or scheduling constraints for such an appearance
- Comparable guest appearance rates for other political figures with similar prominence in the 2026 timeframe
- The typical lead time between guest booking and episode release for the Joe Rogan Experience

Contracts:
- Will Clavicular go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Clavicular — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%)
- Will Alex Jones go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Alex Jones — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%)
- Will Bill Ackman go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Bill Ackman — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%)
- Will Bernie Sanders go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Bernie Sanders — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%)
- Will Barack Obama go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Barack Obama — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%)
- Will Donald Trump go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Donald Trump — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%)
- Will Drake go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Drake — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%)
- Will David Sacks go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: David Sacks — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%)
- ... and 9 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-27T02:20:51.800Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "15% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/roganguest
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Tulsi%20Gabbard%20go%20on%20the%20Joe%20Rogan%20Experience%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202027
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev