36% — Will Cardi B perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI Kalshi 36% · 20 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-21 10:54:08 UTC Why this matters: This represents the market's current estimate that Cardi B will be featured as an in-game radio artist when Grand Theft Auto VI launches. The 14% probability sits in the middle range among artists being tracked, suggesting meaningful but not dominant odds compared to higher-probability artists like The Weeknd (23%) and lower ones like Ariana Grande (12%). The probability is primarily driven by two factors: Cardi B's historical relationship with the GTA franchise and Rockstar's tendency to feature mainstream hip-hop artists in radio stations, balanced against the limited roster slots available at launch and the competitive field of major artists seeking inclusion. The key catalyst will be Rockstar's official announcement of the complete in-game radio lineup, which typically occurs in the weeks before or at launch, which would definitively resolve this contract. Until then, uncertainty remains around Cardi B's negotiation status with the studio and which artists ultimately secured spots. Key factors: - Cardi B has no confirmed prior involvement with GTA radio stations, unlike some competitors who have appeared in previous GTA titles - The Weeknd contract trades at 23% versus Cardi B at 14%, suggesting market preference for other artists in the limited roster - Rockstar has not publicly disclosed the GTA VI radio artist lineup as of mid-September 2026, leaving resolution dependent on an official announcement - Hip-hop/rap is a staple genre for GTA soundtracks, which could favor Cardi B, but competing artists span multiple genres with varying market odds from 12-23% - Launch radio stations typically feature 15-25 artists per station across multiple genres, creating both opportunity and scarcity that pricing reflects Contracts: - Will Don Toliver perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI?: Don Toliver — 72¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 72%) - Will The Weeknd perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI?: The Weeknd — 80¢ Kalshi $285 (weight 16%) - Will Tate McRae perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI?: Tate McRae — 84¢ Kalshi $199 (weight 11%) - Will Kendrick Lamar perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI?: Kendrick Lamar — 34¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 0%) - Will Drake perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI?: Drake — 36¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 0%) - Will Taylor Swift perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI?: Taylor Swift — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Billie Eilish perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI?: Billie Eilish — 31¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Sabrina Carpenter perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI?: Sabrina Carpenter — 31¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-21T10:20:51.359Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "36% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/roleinproduction Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Cardi%20B%20perform%20as%20an%20in-game%20radio%20artist%20at%20launch%20in%20GTA%20VI Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev